UN Warns El Nino Returns June 2026 Bringing Extreme Global Weather

The UN expects an 80% chance of El Nino between June and August 2026. This is higher than previous climate predictions and will likely increase global heat.
By Newsroom | Environment, Global News |

An 80% likelihood of an El Niño event developing between June and August 2026 has been flagged by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a United Nations body. This natural climate pattern, characterized by the warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, is expected to "pour fuel on the fire" of an already warming planet, leading to increased risks of extreme weather.

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The WMO's latest update indicates that developing El Niño conditions are consistent with atmospheric readings, suggesting a potential return of the phenomenon. While each El Niño event is distinct, scientists commonly link them to specific shifts in weather patterns:

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  • Increased rainfall is typically observed in parts of South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia.

  • Drier conditions are often experienced in Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of South Asia.

Unusually high global temperatures are also forecast for the next three months, exacerbating the potential for extreme rain and drought events. While a moderate El Niño can amplify existing weather extremes, the convergence of this natural cycle with human-caused climate change raises concerns about potentially more severe and far-reaching impacts. Many scientists anticipate this El Niño could be unusually powerful.

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The return of El Niño is expected to influence global temperature and precipitation patterns. Historical associations with El Niño years, particularly in regions like India, include below-normal monsoon rainfall, more frequent and intense heatwaves, and rising food prices. The WMO emphasizes the need for immediate, informed decision-making, planning, and preparedness to protect lives and livelihoods.

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Background: El Niño and ENSO

El Niño is one phase of the 'El Niño–Southern Oscillation' (ENSO) cycle, a powerful natural climate driver. ENSO encompasses three phases: El Niño (warming), La Niña (cooling), and neutral conditions. The shift between these phases is driven by changes in wind patterns over the Pacific Ocean. The WMO monitors these shifts through various indices, including the Southern Oscillation Index, which measures atmospheric pressure differences crucial to understanding ENSO's development.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the chance of an El Nino event occurring between June and August 2026?
The World Meteorological Organization reports an 80% likelihood of an El Nino event developing during this period. This climate pattern will likely increase global temperatures and change rainfall patterns worldwide.
Q: Which regions will see more rain due to the 2026 El Nino?
Areas expected to see increased rainfall include parts of South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia. Residents in these regions should prepare for potential flooding and heavy storms.
Q: Which regions will face drier conditions because of the 2026 El Nino?
Central America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of South Asia are likely to experience drier conditions. These areas may face drought risks and water shortages in the coming months.
Q: Why does the 2026 El Nino affect food prices?
El Nino often leads to intense heatwaves and poor monsoon rainfall in agricultural regions like India. These weather extremes can damage crops, which typically causes food prices to rise globally.