Public Opinion Tilts as Former Brexit Architects Question the Path Taken
Recent data indicates a notable shift in public sentiment, with a majority now favouring the United Kingdom rejoining the European Union. This trend, amplified by statements from individuals formerly central to the Brexit process, suggests a growing dissatisfaction with the outcomes of the UK's departure from the bloc.
A civil servant who previously spearheaded the UK's Brexit department, Philip Rycroft, has publicly advocated for a return to the EU. His stance is bolstered by figures from recent polling conducted by YouGov for the campaign group Best for Britain, revealing that 53 per cent of individuals surveyed now support rejoining the EU, contrasting with 32 per cent opposed and 14 per cent undecided.
Despite this apparent public lean, the current government appears to be holding firm on its stance. Thomas-Symonds, cited in one report, has categorically ruled out any move that would place the UK back within an EU customs union, even a bespoke arrangement akin to those with Turkey or Norway. Nevertheless, reports suggest internal discussions are underway among senior government figures, potentially revisiting the policy in anticipation of the next general election.
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Echoes of Doubt: Prominent Figures Reassess Brexit's Legacy
The sentiment for a re-evaluation of Brexit is not confined to a single voice. Neil Kinnock, a former Labour leader, has asserted that Brexit has inflicted "enormous damage" on the UK, expressing his belief that the Labour party will, at some point, campaign for rejoining, though without specifying a timeline.
Researchers tracking Brexit's impact have explored various scenarios, from maintaining the status quo under Labour's current policy to rejoining the EU entirely. Anand Menon, director of UK in a Changing Europe, has highlighted what he terms "inherent contradictions" within Labour's approach, noting the party's loss of voters to parties like Reform, but a more significant exodus to the Liberal Democrats and Greens. Menon suggests that rejoining the customs union and single market, a position Labour currently opposes, would likely reignite past divisions.
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Even Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, has controversially suggested that Britain should rejoin the EU to "fix" Brexit, reportedly admitting that the EU itself "goofed it up" in its handling of the arrangement. Polling from November 2023 showed 57 per cent of Britons believed leaving the EU was a mistake, with 33 per cent maintaining it was the correct decision.
Open Doors and Unanswered Questions: The EU's Stance
From the EU's perspective, the path back appears to be available. Michel Barnier, the EU's former chief Brexit negotiator, has stated unequivocally that Britain can rejoin the EU "any time." He has emphasised that the "door remains open," though he also stressed the need to assess the UK's readiness as if it were a new applicant, implying that conditions may have changed. This comes after a period of intense negotiation and some apparent friction regarding adherence to existing agreements.
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In parallel, a new UK-EU security pact has been under development, with some industry experts anticipating economic benefits. The timing and substance of such pacts are often viewed through the broader lens of the UK's relationship with the continent, raising questions about whether these are tentative steps towards a deeper integration or merely pragmatic adjustments in an increasingly uncertain global landscape.
