El Niño Starts: Expect Hotter Weather and Extreme Events

The World Meteorological Organization confirmed El Niño has started. There is a 90% chance of warmer weather and extreme events globally in the coming months.
By Newsroom | Weather, Global |

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has officially confirmed the onset of El Niño, a significant climate pattern characterized by the warming of Pacific Ocean surface temperatures. The agency forecasts an 80% likelihood of El Niño conditions appearing between June and August of this year, escalating to a 90% probability in the subsequent period. This development is poised to contribute to a surge in above-average global temperatures and a rise in extreme weather events across vast swathes of the planet.

Accelerated Impacts and Widespread Concerns

The WMO, a specialized agency of the United Nations based in Geneva, acts as the definitive voice on atmospheric conditions and their interaction with oceans and water resources. The organization's pronouncements come with a stark warning, urging nations to bolster their early warning systems in anticipation of intensified meteorological phenomena. Historical data indicates that El Niño events, which typically form between March and June and peak between November and February, tend to exert their most pronounced influence on global temperatures in the year following their peak. This suggests a lingering period of heightened climatic volatility.

Read More: Super El Niño Summer: 80% Chance of High Heat

A Pattern of Extremes

El Niño is one half of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, a powerful natural force that also includes its colder counterpart, La Niña. These ENSO events are categorized by intensity—weak, moderate, strong, or very strong—and their progression impacts weather patterns globally. Recent reports, including a "WMO Global Climate Report 2025," have already highlighted a pattern of rapid climate acceleration, noting increasing instances of extreme heat in urban areas, shifting disease vectors like malaria, and unusually severe weather seasons in regions like Europe. The WMO's major programs, such as the World Weather Watch and the World Climate Programme, are dedicated to monitoring these shifts and promoting research into atmospheric changes, including ozone depletion.

Read More: El Niño Event Likely by August 2026, WMO Warns

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is El Niño and has it started?
Yes, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has confirmed El Niño has begun. This is a climate pattern where the Pacific Ocean gets warmer.
Q: How likely is it to be hot and cause extreme weather?
The WMO predicts an 80% chance of El Niño conditions between June and August, rising to a 90% chance later. This means hotter global temperatures and more extreme weather events are likely.
Q: When will the effects be strongest?
El Niño events usually peak between November and February. The biggest impact on global temperatures often happens in the year *after* the peak, meaning 2027 could see continued effects.
Q: What should countries do now?
The WMO advises countries to improve their early warning systems. This will help people prepare for more intense storms, heatwaves, and other severe weather.