Robust Output and Contribution to GDP Mark Early 2026 Performance
In the first quarter of 2026, China's service sector solidified its position as a primary economic engine, with its value-added output reaching 61.7 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This marks an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the same period in the previous year. The sector's contribution to the nation's overall economic growth was even more pronounced, accounting for 63.2 percent of the total, a rise of 4 percentage points from the year before. Official data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicates broadly robust revenue growth across major service sectors since the start of the year. The NBS reported a 5.2% year-on-year increase in added value for the services sector during this period.

Sectoral Growth and Future Outlook
Information and IT Services Lead: Specific areas within the service sector have shown particularly strong performance. The value-added output for information transmission, software, and IT services saw an 11.1 percent increase. Leasing and business services expanded by 10.3 percent year-on-year.
Emerging Industries Drive Transformation: Digital technologies are accelerating the modernization and upgrading of industries, with emerging service industries playing an increasingly significant role. This trend is expected to foster new service business models, driven by industrial upgrades, evolving consumer demand, and new technologies like artificial intelligence (AI).
Continued Expansion Expected: Despite some challenges, such as weak demand recovery, rising input costs, and intense competition, the services sector is anticipated to maintain its growth momentum. Business activity has been in expansionary territory for 23 consecutive months, a testament to its resilience and potential.
Economic Impact and Trade Dynamics
The service sector's overall contribution to economic growth was substantial, reaching 61.4 percent in 2025, an increase of 3.7 percentage points from the prior year. The total value-added output of China's service sector in 2025 climbed 5.4 percent year-on-year to 80.89 trillion yuan, approximately 11.62 trillion U.S. dollars.
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Trade plays a crucial role in fostering service sector growth, with industry expansion, in turn, driving trade demand. Total factor productivity growth within China's services sector has been accelerating, particularly in financial services and commerce, contributing significantly to the country's ongoing economic development. The ongoing digitalization of services, including those that were previously difficult to trade across borders, is accelerating the development of services trade. AI, in particular, is seen as a catalyst for a new era in services trade, an area where China possesses competitive advantages.

Background and Key Observations
Chang Haizhong, executive director of corporates at Fitch Bohua, noted the sustained expansionary territory of business activity for 23 months, underscoring the sector's inherent strength during China's economic structural adjustments. Confidence among service sector businesses is also improving, with the business expectation index reaching a seven-month high within the expansion range in November.
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Marshall Mills, senior resident representative in China of the International Monetary Fund, highlighted that China's services sector still represents a significant growth opportunity due to its relatively smaller scale compared to other nations. Officials from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) have indicated that further steps will be taken to enhance supply efficiency, stimulate market vitality, and cultivate new growth points to support the high-quality development of the service industry. The services business activity index stood at 50.2 in March 2026, up from 49.7 in February, suggesting improving market conditions. Analysts have pointed to strong performance in digital services, healthcare, and tourism.