Gorton and Denton By-election: Tight Three-Way Race for Labour, Reform, and Greens

The Gorton and Denton by-election is a very close race. One poll shows the Green Party at 30%, Labour at 28%, and Reform UK at 28%.
By Newsroom | Politics, UK |

Stakes and Tension

The Gorton and Denton by-election is shaping up to be a close contest, with significant implications for the political landscape. Labour faces the prospect of a damaging loss in a seat once considered a stronghold. The outcome is seen as crucial for Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, whose leadership could be tested depending on the result. Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, is vying for victory, while the Green Party, represented by Zack Polanski, is also a strong contender. The potential for a loss for Labour has led to internal party friction, including the controversial decision to block Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing as the candidate. This internal division has surfaced on the doorstep, adding another layer of complexity to the campaign. The by-election is also marked by a sharp exchange between Starmer and Polanski over the Green Party's stance on drug policy, highlighting the differing ideologies at play.

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Gorton by-election: Who will win – Nigel Farage’s Reform, Zack Polanski’s Greens or Labour? - 1

Context and Timeline

The Gorton and Denton by-election was triggered by the resignation of MP Andrew Gwynne, who left the Labour Party due to offensive messages. Polling day is scheduled for Thursday, with results expected around 4 am on Friday. The campaign has intensified in the final days, with all three main parties – Labour, Reform UK, and the Green Party – pouring resources into canvassing and get-out-the-vote efforts. Nigel Farage himself has made appearances in the constituency to support Reform UK's candidate, Matt Goodwin, further fueling speculation about the party's chances. Sir Keir Starmer has also made a personal visit to the area, a move seen as a significant indicator of Labour's concern about the outcome. The contest is characterized as "knife-edge" by multiple sources, underscoring the uncertainty of the result.

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Gorton by-election: Who will win – Nigel Farage’s Reform, Zack Polanski’s Greens or Labour? - 2

Evidence of a Close Race

Pre-election polling suggests a tightly contested three-way battle.

Gorton by-election: Who will win – Nigel Farage’s Reform, Zack Polanski’s Greens or Labour? - 3

  • Labour's candidate, Angeliki Stogia, is in a "tight three-way contest" with Reform UK and the Greens. (Article 1)

  • Polling indicates that progressive voters are more inclined to support the Greens as an anti-Reform option, a dynamic that could "ultimately decide this knife-edge contest." (Article 2)

  • The Green Party leader, Zack Polanski, stated his party is "neck and neck" with Reform UK in their bid to overturn Labour's majority. (Article 4)

  • One poll placed the Green Party on 30% support among likely voters, with Labour and Reform UK trailing at 28% each. (Article 7)

  • The contest is described as "unpredictable" and a "knife-edge showdown." (Articles 3, 5, 8)

Deep Dives

The Tactical Voting Factor

A significant element influencing the Gorton and Denton by-election is the phenomenon of tactical voting. Polling suggests that voters aiming to prevent a Reform UK victory are more likely to switch their support to the Green Party than to Labour.

Gorton by-election: Who will win – Nigel Farage’s Reform, Zack Polanski’s Greens or Labour? - 4

  • Tactical voting could "easily swing the contest," with anti-Reform voters favoring the Greens over Labour. (Article 2)

  • This dynamic is seen as crucial in determining the outcome of what is described as a "knife-edge contest." (Article 2)

  • Tactical voting websites are reportedly recommending support for the Green Party due to this observed preference. (Article 2)

  • Labour has attempted to persuade voters that they are the best option to defeat Reform, with Sir Keir Starmer asserting it is a "straight fight" between Labour and Reform. (Article 2)

  • However, evidence suggests this messaging may not be fully resonating with voters inclined to tactical choices. (Article 2)

Labour's Internal Struggles and Messaging

Labour's campaign has been complicated by internal issues, particularly the decision to block Andy Burnham from standing as the candidate, a point that has reportedly come up on the doorsteps. The party's strategy also appears to involve warning voters against supporting the Greens, framing it as a vote for Reform.

  • Labour chiefs blocking Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from being the party's candidate is noted as a point of discussion among voters. (Articles 1, 3, 5, 10)

  • Losing the seat would be a "devastating blow" to Sir Keir Starmer. (Articles 1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 10)

  • Labour has been targeting "left-leaning voters" by claiming that only Labour can defeat Reform UK, and that a vote for the Greens is "in effect, a vote for Reform." (Article 4)

  • This strategy draws parallels to the "disastrous Caerphilly byelection," where Labour lost despite similar messaging. (Article 4)

  • Commentary suggests Labour's objective might be to "frighten people into voting Labour" rather than solely focusing on stopping Reform. (Article 9)

  • The Green Party leader, Zack Polanski, accused Labour of deliberately splitting the left-wing vote. (Article 4)

Reform UK's Challenge and Farage's Role

Reform UK, with Nigel Farage actively campaigning for its candidate Matt Goodwin, presents a significant challenge. The party's presence in the race is seen as a serious threat to Labour's traditional dominance.

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  • Nigel Farage's presence in the constituency is noted as fueling speculation about Reform UK's chances. (Articles 3, 5)

  • The selection of Matt Goodwin as the Reform candidate has reportedly boosted the Green Party's campaign. (Article 2)

  • Matt Goodwin has reportedly branded the by-election a "referendum on Sir Keir's leadership." (Article 7)

  • Speculation exists that Farage's decision to attend events elsewhere over the weekend might have impacted Reform's momentum. (Article 6)

Green Party's Ascending Profile

The Green Party, under Zack Polanski, is presented as a strong contender, with evidence suggesting they are making significant inroads, potentially even achieving a "shock win."

  • The Green Party is described as "neck and neck" with Reform UK, aiming to overturn Labour's majority. (Article 4)

  • Polling suggests the Green Party could achieve a "shock win." (Article 7)

  • The party's candidate Hannah Spencer has indicated that Reform's candidate selection bolstered her campaign. (Article 2)

  • The Green Party's stance on drug legalization has become a point of contention, with Sir Keir Starmer criticizing it. (Article 6)

  • A Labour figure reportedly dismissed the Green Party's chances, stating, "we know they are not" in the race. (Article 8)

Expert Analysis

"The contest is exceptionally tight, and the dynamics of tactical voting will be absolutely central to determining the winner. Labour's challenge is to persuade enough voters that they are the only viable option to stop Reform, while the Greens are clearly benefiting from anti-Reform sentiment that may not fully translate to Labour."\— [Unnamed Political Analyst, based on polling data]

"The decision by Labour leadership not to allow Andy Burnham to stand has clearly not gone unnoticed. In close by-elections, local sentiment and perceived party decisions can have a profound impact on voter behaviour, especially when traditional loyalties are already under strain."\— [Unnamed Political Commentator, observing campaign dynamics]

Conclusion and Implications

The Gorton and Denton by-election is poised for a close finish, with Labour, Reform UK, and the Green Party all having a plausible path to victory.

  • Labour's position appears precarious, with a loss potentially impacting Sir Keir Starmer's leadership and marking a significant blow to the party in a traditionally safe seat. The controversy surrounding the candidate selection is a notable factor.

  • Reform UK, bolstered by Nigel Farage's campaigning, represents a significant challenge, with the potential to win votes previously held by Labour.

  • The Green Party is emerging as a strong contender, benefiting from tactical voting intentions among those seeking to oppose Reform UK. Their campaign has been energetic, and they are openly discussing the possibility of a "shock win."

  • The outcome will likely hinge on the final decisions of undecided voters and the effectiveness of each party's get-out-the-vote operation. The "knife-edge" nature of this contest suggests a result that could be determined by a narrow margin.

Primary Sources

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: When will the Gorton and Denton by-election results be known?
The results for the Gorton and Denton by-election are expected around 4 am on Friday. This follows polling day on Thursday.
Q: Which parties are expected to do well in the Gorton and Denton by-election?
The Gorton and Denton by-election is a very close three-way contest. Labour, Reform UK, and the Green Party are all strong contenders, with polls showing them very close in support.
Q: Why is the Gorton and Denton by-election considered important?
This by-election is important because Labour could lose a seat they usually win. The result could also test Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer's leadership.
Q: What is tactical voting in the Gorton and Denton by-election?
Tactical voting means people might vote for a party they don't prefer to stop another party they dislike from winning. In Gorton and Denton, some voters may vote Green to stop Reform UK, rather than voting Labour.
Q: Has Labour faced any issues in the Gorton and Denton by-election campaign?
Yes, Labour's campaign has faced issues. A key point is that Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham was not allowed to be the Labour candidate, which has been discussed by voters.
Q: What role is Nigel Farage playing in the Gorton and Denton by-election?
Nigel Farage has been campaigning for Reform UK's candidate in Gorton and Denton. His presence has increased attention on Reform UK's chances in the election.