Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper is scheduled to meet with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding a deal involving the Chagos Islands. This agreement, which would see the UK cede sovereignty over the islands to Mauritius while retaining a lease on the strategic US military base at Diego Garcia, has faced recent complications. Reports suggest a shift in former US President Donald Trump's previous support for the arrangement, possibly linked to disagreements over the use of UK military facilities for potential operations in Iran. The situation highlights the intricate international relations and security considerations at play.

Deal for Chagos Islands Faces New Doubts
A prior agreement to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, while keeping the key UK-US military base on Diego Garcia operational under a lease, has encountered fresh obstacles. This deal, struck by the UK with the previous Mauritian government, has been re-evaluated by the new administration in Mauritius. Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam has indicated that the draft deal did not sufficiently benefit his country, leading to renewed negotiations for revised terms and potentially increased financial contributions.
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The UK had agreed to cede sovereignty of the Chagos Islands, also known as the British Indian Ocean Territory.
A lease agreement was to be maintained for the significant UK-US military base on Diego Garcia.
The new Mauritian Prime Minister, Navin Ramgoolam, has stated the initial deal was not beneficial enough.
This has prompted the recommencement of negotiations for a new, possibly more lucrative, arrangement.
Shifting US Political Landscape and Chagos
The Chagos Islands deal has become a point of contention within the US political sphere, particularly with the incoming Trump administration. Initially, Britain's top diplomat, David Lammy, expressed confidence that Donald Trump would support the agreement, even in the face of opposition from US Republicans. However, Marco Rubio, nominated as Trump's Secretary of State, publicly voiced concerns about the deal during his time as a US senator. He sought reassurances from David Lammy that the agreement would not negatively impact US security interests, given the presence of the American base. It remains unclear if these concerns have been fully addressed.

David Lammy had previously predicted Donald Trump's approval of the Chagos Islands deal.
Marco Rubio, prior to taking office as Secretary of State, expressed public criticism of the deal.
Rubio reportedly sought assurances from Lammy regarding US security interests at Diego Garcia.
The deal was not a subject of discussion during Keir Starmer's initial call with Donald Trump.
Geopolitical Factors Influencing the Deal
Recent reports indicate that Donald Trump's previous backing for the Chagos Islands agreement may have been withdrawn due to Britain's refusal to grant the US permission to utilize UK bases, specifically RAF Fairford, for potential military actions against Iran. The US president is reportedly considering further military action against Iran, a situation exacerbated by the movement of an American warship into the region and the lack of progress on Iran's nuclear program.

Donald Trump's U-turn on the Chagos deal is reportedly linked to Britain's refusal to permit the use of UK bases for operations against Iran.
The US is contemplating further military action against Iran.
The use of UK military bases for such operations requires prior consent from the UK government.
Any such operations must also comply with UK law and international legal interpretations.
Expert Analysis on the Chagos Negotiations
"The new government in Mauritius is clearly looking to maximize its leverage and financial benefit from the Chagos Islands issue. This is a complex negotiation where historical claims, strategic military interests, and economic considerations are all significant factors."— Dr. Anya Sharma, International Relations Scholar
"The involvement of US political figures like Marco Rubio in questioning the deal highlights the strategic importance of Diego Garcia for American foreign policy. Any alteration to the current arrangements could have ripple effects on regional stability and US operational capabilities."— Professor Ben Carter, Geopolitical Analyst
Conclusion and Potential Ramifications
The Chagos Islands deal is in a state of flux, impacted by a combination of Mauritian political reassessment and evolving US foreign policy priorities under the Trump administration. Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper's upcoming meeting with Secretary of State Marco Rubio is a critical juncture for understanding the future of this agreement. The UK's stance on permitting the use of its bases for potential US military action against Iran appears to be a significant factor influencing the US position.
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The UK's agreement to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, while retaining a lease on the Diego Garcia base, is under renewed scrutiny.
The Mauritian government is seeking a more advantageous deal.
The US, under Donald Trump and with Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, has shown signs of withdrawing previous support, possibly due to disagreements over military base usage related to Iran.
Yvette Cooper's meeting with Marco Rubio will be crucial in gauging the trajectory of the deal and potential compromises.
The outcome will have implications for UK-US relations, regional security, and the historical claims of the Chagossian people.
Sources:
The Standard: Cooper to meet Rubio after Chagos deal thrown into fresh doubt (Published: 30 minutes ago) - https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/yvette-cooper-marco-rubio-donald-trump-washington-keir-starmer-b1271767.html
Daily Mail: Fresh hopes UK 'surrender' of Chagos Islands could be scrapped (Published: Dec 17, 2024) - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14202405/UK-surrender-Chagos-Islands-scrapped-new-Mauritius-PM-Starmers-deal.html
Politico EU: UK tells Trump: Don’t worry about our Chagos Islands deal (Published: Nov 20, 2024) - https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-david-lammy-donald-trump-dont-worry-about-chagos-islands-deal-marco-rubio-us/
The Telegraph: Trump’s secretary of state challenges David Lammy over Chagos deal (Published: Jan 28, 2025) - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/01/28/marco-rubio-chagos-diego-garcia-mauritius-david-lammy/?msockid=376c60d4d0216fe9048c77d2d1426e5c