Texas Senate Race: Primaries Are Close as Big Election Nears

The race for the U.S. Senate seat in Texas is very close. Primary elections are coming soon. Polls show tight races for both parties. The winners will face off in the general election in November 2026.
By Newsroom | Politics, Texas |

Stakes Are High in Contested Texas Senate Race

The race for the U.S. Senate seat in Texas is becoming increasingly dynamic. With primary elections approaching, candidates are actively campaigning, and polls indicate tight contests in both major parties. The outcome of these primaries will shape the general election in November 2026, presenting significant implications for the state's representation in the U.S. Senate and the broader political landscape. Public opinion, as captured by various polls, suggests a complex electoral environment where voter sentiment is shifting and competitive races are the norm.

Shifting Polls and Key Contenders Emerge

The path to the U.S. Senate in Texas is marked by spirited primary challenges. On the Democratic side, Representative Jasmine Crockett and State Representative James Talarico are vying for the nomination. Recent polling data reveals a competitive race between them, with varying results across different surveys.

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  • An Emerson poll from January 10-12 showed Talarico with a 9-point lead.

  • However, a more recent Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) poll (January 14-21) indicated Crockett holding a 1-point lead.

  • A University of Houston survey (January 20-31) further shifted the dynamic, giving Crockett an 8-point lead.

On the Republican side, the primary for the incumbent Senator John Cornyn is highly contested. He faces challenges from Attorney General Ken Paxton and Representative Wesley Hunt.

  • The RCP average shows Paxton with a 2-point lead over Cornyn.

  • A University of Houston poll (January 20-31) also reported Paxton with an 8-point lead.

  • An Emerson College Polling report from January 15, 2026, indicated a tight race with Paxton at 27% and Cornyn at 26%, noting that neither candidate appeared likely to secure 50% of the vote needed to avoid a runoff.

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The primary election is scheduled for March 3, 2026, with early voting commencing shortly before. The general election is set for November 3, 2026.

Demographic Deep Dives in Democratic Primary

Analysis of the Democratic primary reveals distinct voter preferences among different demographic groups.

  • James Talarico appears to be building momentum among Hispanic voters, with 59% support in one poll, and also leads among white voters.

  • Jasmine Crockett garners strong support from Black Democratic primary voters, with 80% favoring her in a recent poll.

  • Men are also showing a preference for Talarico, with 52% compared to Crockett's 30%.

  • Women are nearly evenly split, with Talarico at 44% and Crockett at 43%.

These divisions highlight the nuanced landscape of the Democratic primary, where demographic appeals and candidate outreach are critical factors.

Wargaming the 2026 Election: the Texas Senate Race - 1

Republican Primary: A Divided Electorate

The Republican primary is characterized by a close contest between established figures, suggesting a potentially divided party electorate.

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  • Ken Paxton and John Cornyn are in a tight race, with polls showing narrow leads for Paxton.

  • The Emerson College Polling report suggests that neither candidate is definitively securing a majority, indicating the possibility of a runoff election.

  • The data implies that the Republican base is not uniformly aligned behind a single candidate at this stage.

This division among Republican voters could have significant implications for the eventual nominee's strength heading into the general election.

General Election Hypotheticals

While primaries are ongoing, hypothetical matchups for the general election have also been tested.

  • In potential general election scenarios, Cornyn has shown stronger performance than Paxton in head-to-head contests against Democratic candidates.

  • Talarico is presented as leading Crockett in the Democratic primary race, indicating a potential trajectory for the party's nominee.

These early general election projections offer a glimpse into possible future contests but are subject to change as the primaries unfold and general election campaigns commence.

Expert Insights and Analytical Perspectives

Pollsters and political analysts are observing the unfolding Texas Senate race with keen interest. The competitive nature of both primaries is seen as a key indicator of voter engagement and potential party shifts.

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  • "Neither Ken Paxton nor John Cornyn appears positioned to reach 50% on the primary ballot, as the Republican electorate remains sharply divided," stated Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. This observation underscores the intra-party dynamics at play.

The data suggests that the Texas Senate race is a developing narrative, with primary outcomes being crucial determinants of the eventual general election contest.

Conclusion: A Pivotal Election Year in Texas

The 2026 Texas Senate race is shaping up to be a closely watched and potentially consequential election. Both the Democratic and Republican primaries feature compelling contenders and shifting poll numbers, indicating a high level of voter interest and uncertainty. The outcomes of these early contests will not only determine party nominees but also influence the broader political narrative in Texas and its representation in the U.S. Senate. The dynamic nature of the polling and the observed demographic trends suggest a complex path to the general election, with significant implications for the state's political future.

Sources

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Frequently Asked Questions

Q: When are the primary elections in Texas for the Senate race?
The primary elections are on March 3, 2026. Early voting starts before that date.
Q: Who are the main candidates in the Democratic primary?
The main candidates are Representative Jasmine Crockett and State Representative James Talarico.
Q: Who are the main candidates in the Republican primary?
The main candidates are Senator John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Representative Wesley Hunt.
Q: What do the polls say about the Republican race?
Polls show a very close race between Ken Paxton and John Cornyn. It is possible neither will get enough votes to win without another vote later.
Q: What do the polls say about the Democratic race?
Polls show a close race between Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico. Talarico leads with Hispanic and white voters, while Crockett leads with Black voters.