Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalist party, has emerged as the largest group in the Senedd, securing 43 seats in a seismic electoral shift. This marks the first time Plaid Cymru has achieved this position, positioning its leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, for a bid to become First Minister. The results signal a devastating collapse for Welsh Labour, which has been reduced to a mere 9 seats, a loss of 35 seats. The current First Minister, Eluned Morgan, has lost her seat in Ceredigion, an outcome that will inevitably trigger a leadership contest within the Welsh Labour party.
The Senedd election results represent a monumental upheaval in Welsh politics, ending 27 years of Labour dominance. Plaid Cymru's victory, though falling six seats short of an overall majority, necessitates coalition building for governance. Meanwhile, Reform UK has made significant inroads, becoming the second-largest party with 34 seats, a substantial increase of 34 seats.
Labour's Crushing Defeat
The scale of Labour's loss is stark, with many of its representatives failing to secure re-election. Deputy Health Minister Sarah Murray was among those who lost their seats, and the final constituency results in Gwynedd Maldwyn saw Labour lose three more seats to Plaid Cymru and Reform UK. Labour affiliated unions have already called for "urgent change" following what they described as "catastrophic" results.
A significant factor contributing to Labour's downfall appears to be public dissatisfaction with the national party leadership. Comments from within the party suggest that the reputation of UK Labour leader Keir Starmer was a persistent issue on the doorstep. Acknowledging the difficulty of the situation, a Welsh Labour spokeswoman stated, "This has undeniably been a very difficult election for Welsh Labour."
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Reform UK's Surprising Gains
Despite falling slightly short of some expectations, Reform UK's performance is noteworthy. Their substantial seat count makes them a significant player in the new Senedd composition. Pre-election polls had indicated a strong showing for Reform UK, with one poll placing them at 42% and Plaid Cymru at 38%, significantly ahead of Labour at 12%.
Other Parties' Fortunes
The Green Party has also seen success, securing 2 seats, an increase of 2 seats. The Liberal Democrats gained 1 seat, bringing their total to 1 seat. The Welsh Conservatives, led by Darren Millar, managed to retain 7 seats, a reduction of 22 seats.
Historical Context
These election results have been described as "disastrous" and a "generational election disaster" for Labour. The "writing's been on the wall for months," with reports of internal polling and predictions indicating Labour's deep trouble in Wales. The outcome in the Senedd by-election in Caerphilly, a traditional Labour stronghold, was seen as a harbinger of this broader defeat. The election saw the emergence of two Green members in the Senedd, a historic first.
Read More: Labour Leadership Questioned After Poor Election Results in Wales
Rhun ap Iorwerth has indicated his intention to "reach out" to other parties to form a new government, a move necessitated by Plaid Cymru's failure to secure an outright majority. The results have reshaped the political landscape of Wales, moving beyond the established Labour dominance.
