Recent polling data indicates a notable upswing in support for One Nation, a trend that began surfacing in the latter stages of the 2025 federal election and has continued into late 2025. This surge places the party at an estimated 9 per cent national support in the Resolve Political Monitor, a figure representing a nearly three-point increase from its federal election result.
The data suggests this growth is not isolated. Roy Morgan Research reported in November 2025 that support for One Nation had reached its highest point since 1998. While the Australian Labor Party (ALP) maintains a two-party preferred lead and would likely be returned to government with an increased majority if an election were held then, the climb by One Nation signals a recalibration of the broader political landscape.
The increased visibility and support are attributed by the party to its "clear stance on key issues," presenting itself as a "conservative alternative" that "speaks directly to the grassroots." Voters appear to be responding to concerns about 'rising living costs, housing shortages, crime, immigration pressures, and radical gender and race ideologies infiltrating classrooms'. One Nation has also framed the immigration debate as an "infrastructure issue rather than an issue of race," according to reports citing party representatives.
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The reasons behind this surge are multifaceted, involving a consolidation of anti-immigration sentiment on the political right. Analysis suggests that Labor's spending on welfare measures and the Liberal Party's internal debates, particularly their decision to abandon a 'net zero' commitment in November 2025, may have created openings for One Nation to gain traction.
The party’s trajectory post-election shows sustained momentum. A surge in their numbers was observed in the final weeks of the 2025 federal campaign, and this appears to have continued. The capacity for One Nation to sustain these gains will likely depend on how effectively other major parties address the issues resonating with their potential voter base.
