Why Oil Prices Rose 4% After US Strikes on Iran in February 2026

Oil prices increased by 4% this week, driven by rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran. This is a significant jump compared to last week's stable prices.
By Newsroom | Business, World News |

Oil prices have seen a notable increase, climbing by approximately 4%, following reports of potential U.S. military strikes on Iran. This price jump is linked to concerns that such actions could disrupt global oil supplies, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for energy transport.

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Growing Fears of Supply Disruption

The recent escalation of tensions, including reported U.S. military strikes on Iran, has triggered significant movement in oil markets. Traders and analysts are closely watching for any signs of disruption to oil production or transit. The possibility of Iran retaliating and potentially blocking key shipping lanes has become a central concern, driving up the price of oil.

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Timeline of Events and Key Actors

  • Recent Reports: Information suggests that Iran may have ignored key U.S. demands, with military strikes being considered.

  • U.S. Actions: Reports indicate the U.S. has launched strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. The deployment of a second aircraft carrier by the U.S. has also been noted, potentially as a measure in anticipation of failed negotiations.

  • Iran's Response: Iran has vowed retaliation, indicating a broadening of potential targets. Official statements from Iran regarding traffic closures in the Strait of Hormuz during military exercises have also been made.

  • International Involvement: NATO has commented on the U.S. strikes, with the Secretary General defending them as not violating international law and reiterating Iran's obligation not to develop nuclear weapons.

Evidence of Price Movements and Market Reactions

  • Price Jump: Oil prices experienced a 4% jump, directly correlated with reports of potential U.S. military actions against Iran.

  • Strait of Hormuz Traffic: While Iranian state media reported temporary closures in parts of the Strait of Hormuz due to military exercises, one analysis firm did not observe a halt in traffic on a specific Tuesday.

  • Market Volatility: The conflict in the Middle East has led to "sharp swings" in oil prices, impacting energy bills and petrol prices globally.

  • Delayed Reaction: Despite early fears, oil prices initially reversed gains as traders processed Iran's "subdued initial response," which tempered immediate concerns about supply disruptions.

Impact on Global Energy Markets

The Strait of Hormuz: A Critical Chokepoint

The Strait of Hormuz is a vital route for global oil shipments. Fears that Iran might block traffic through this narrow waterway have historically led to significant price volatility. The potential for disruption here is a primary driver behind the current market unease and the subsequent rise in oil prices.

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Retaliation and Escalation Risks

Iran's commitment to retaliate following the U.S. strikes introduces a layer of uncertainty. The scope and nature of this retaliation remain a key concern for global markets. Any further escalation could have more pronounced effects on oil prices and geopolitical stability.

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Economic Ramifications

Surging oil prices present a new challenge for economies, including the United States. Experts predict that high oil and gas prices are likely, potentially reigniting inflation. The sustained duration of these elevated fossil fuel prices is a major question for economic forecasting.

Expert Perspectives

  • "Any conflict in the Middle East is bound to affect global energy prices, which has a knock-on effect on bills and petrol prices." (BBC News analysis)

  • "High oil and gas prices are a near certainty, experts say." (CNN Business report)

  • NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites did not violate international law and reaffirmed NATO's stance on Iran's nuclear activities.

Conclusion and Unanswered Questions

The current rise in oil prices appears to be a direct consequence of heightened tensions and the possibility of military action involving the U.S. and Iran. The primary drivers are the fear of supply disruptions, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, and the potential for retaliatory actions from Iran. While immediate concerns about supply disruptions were temporarily tempered by Iran's initial response, the situation remains fluid.

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Key questions persist regarding:

  • The extent and nature of Iran's promised retaliation.

  • The long-term impact on oil supply routes, especially the Strait of Hormuz.

  • The duration of elevated oil prices and their sustained effect on the global economy and inflation.

  • The precise outcome of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran.

The market's reaction will likely continue to be sensitive to developments concerning Iran's response and any further actions by the U.S. and its allies.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Why did oil prices go up by 4% on February 18, 2026?
Oil prices rose by 4% because reports said the U.S. might strike Iran. People worried this could stop oil from being shipped, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, which is very important for oil.
Q: What is the Strait of Hormuz and why is it important for oil?
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow water path that many oil ships use. If Iran stops ships from going through it, it would make oil supplies much smaller and cause prices to go up a lot.
Q: Did Iran block the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S. strikes?
Iran said it would retaliate and mentioned closing parts of the Strait of Hormuz during military drills. However, some reports from February 2026 did not show a complete stop in traffic on a specific Tuesday.
Q: What did NATO say about the U.S. strikes on Iran?
NATO's Secretary General said the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites did not break international law. He also said Iran must not develop nuclear weapons.
Q: What is the risk of Iran fighting back after the U.S. strikes?
Iran has promised to fight back. This makes people worry about more fighting and how it could affect oil supplies and prices around the world.
Q: Will high oil prices stay for a long time?
Experts think high oil and gas prices are likely to happen because of the situation. It is not clear how long these high prices will last and how much they will affect the global economy and inflation.