Keir Starmer faces Labour leadership questions by February 2026 amid poll concerns

By February 2026, 50% of voters think Keir Starmer will be replaced as Labour leader. This is a significant increase from previous expectations.
By Newsroom | Politics, UK |

Political Winds Buffet Labour Leadership

Rumors and pressure surround Keir Starmer, the current leader of the Labour Party and Prime Minister. Speculation about his potential removal has grown, fueled by a challenging first year in office and unease within the party regarding poll positions. This has led to discussions about possible successors and the party's electoral prospects.

Context of Leadership Questions

The period leading up to February 2026 has seen consistent reports questioning Keir Starmer's leadership of the Labour Party.

If Keir Starmer is ousted, Labour could still win the next election. Here’s how that would work | Larry Elliott - 1

  • December 2025: A poll suggested that half of voters believed Starmer would be replaced as Prime Minister by the end of 2026. This sentiment arose amidst ongoing speculation about challenges to his leadership, particularly if local elections in May proved unfavorable for Labour. Potential challengers like Wes Streeting, Andy Burnham, Shabana Mahmood, and Angela Rayner were mentioned.

  • Late 2025: Reports indicated significant unrest within Labour ranks. This unease was partly attributed to a difficult period in government and instances of party discipline, such as the suspension of 49 Labour MPs for rebelling on a welfare bill. The ability of a leader who secured a substantial majority 18 months prior to maintain party and public support was a point of discussion.

  • September 2025: MPs warned that Starmer would be ousted unless he "changed course immediately." This warning came in the context of local election results and other political events, including the resignation of Angela Rayner as Deputy Prime Minister following a tax scandal and the dismissal of Peter Mandelson as British Ambassador to the US.

  • February 2026: Reports continued to highlight the weakening of Starmer's position, with his future as Prime Minister described as increasingly uncertain. Questions were raised about his judgment, his reliance on a close circle, and his ability to unite the Parliamentary Labour Party. Odds on the next Labour leader began to favor figures like Angela Rayner.

Evidence of Political Pressure

Several sources point to the mounting pressure on Keir Starmer:

  • A poll conducted in late December 2025 indicated that 50% of voters anticipated Starmer's replacement as Prime Minister before the end of 2026.

  • Reports from December 2025 highlighted that unease on Labour benches about the party's poll position was persistent. Some significant figures were rumored to be considering action if local elections performed poorly.

  • Odds for the next Labour leader in February 2026 placed former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner as the favorite, signaling market expectations of a potential leadership change.

  • Articles from December 2025 and February 2026 discussed rumors and speculation surrounding Starmer's potential ouster, citing challenges in his first year and questions about his leadership style and effectiveness.

  • A warning from MPs in September 2025 stated Starmer would be ousted unless he "changes course immediately," linking his future to the party's performance and voter appeal.

Starmer's Leadership Style Under Examination

Keir Starmer's leadership approach has become a focal point of debate.

If Keir Starmer is ousted, Labour could still win the next election. Here’s how that would work | Larry Elliott - 2

  • Central Control vs. Broader Appeal: For years, Starmer's leadership has been characterized by tight central control and strict message discipline. However, this approach is reportedly being questioned, with some believing it has led to a failure to command confidence across the Parliamentary Labour Party.

  • Inner Circle Reliance: Questions have been raised about Starmer's reliance on a "tightly controlled inner circle." This is seen by some as a contributing factor to a perceived lack of broader consultation and support within the party.

  • Perceived Judgment Issues: The fallout from certain events has exposed serious questions about Starmer's judgment, according to reports.

Potential Successors Emerge

Amidst the discussions about Starmer's future, several individuals have been named as potential successors.

  • Angela Rayner: Has been consistently mentioned and, by February 2026, was reportedly the favorite in odds for the next Labour leader.

  • Wes Streeting: Health Secretary.

  • Andy Burnham: Greater Manchester mayor.

  • Shabana Mahmood: Home Secretary.

These individuals represent a range of positions within the Labour party, and their potential to lead the party through future electoral challenges is a subject of ongoing commentary.

Read More: Trump Tells UK PM Starmer Not to Give Away Diego Garcia Military Base

If Keir Starmer is ousted, Labour could still win the next election. Here’s how that would work | Larry Elliott - 3

Electoral Outlook Amidst Leadership Uncertainty

The question of whether Labour could win the next election even with a change in leadership is a key area of analysis.

  • Past Electoral Mandate: Despite current difficulties, Labour secured a significant majority of seats (412) in the general election held 18 months prior to late 2025. This historical performance is seen by some as an indicator of underlying support.

  • Divergent Electorate: The electorate is described as diverse and uncertain, making electoral predictions complex. While traditionally smaller parties may have more stable support, Labour faces the challenge of satisfying a large parliamentary party alongside a varied voter base.

  • Potential for a Reset: Reports suggest that whether Starmer stays or goes, Labour faces a "credibility reset." This implies that a change in leadership could be accompanied by a strategic re-evaluation of the party's platform and message.

Expert Commentary on Labour's Position

Analysts have provided insights into the complexities facing the Labour Party.

If Keir Starmer is ousted, Labour could still win the next election. Here’s how that would work | Larry Elliott - 4

"There’s no denying Labour’s time in office has been difficult. But a diverse and uncertain electorate, plus a large majority of MPs to satisfy, makes Labour’s job very difficult." - The Conversation, December 12, 2025

This sentiment underscores the multifaceted challenges Labour faces, extending beyond just leadership. The composition of the electorate and the internal dynamics of the parliamentary party are significant factors that influence the party's overall standing and its prospects for electoral success.

Conclusion and Implications

Keir Starmer is currently facing significant pressure regarding his leadership of the Labour Party and his position as Prime Minister. Reports from late 2025 and early 2026 indicate persistent speculation about his future, fueled by the party's performance in polls and internal dissent. While Starmer has maintained he intends to remain leader, the discourse points to a party at a potential inflection point.

Read More: UK Prime Minister Starmer Says Nobody is Above the Law Regarding Prince Andrew and Epstein Investigations

The emergence of several potential successors, with Angela Rayner frequently cited as a frontrunner, suggests that contingency planning is underway within the party. The underlying challenge for Labour, as noted by commentators, involves navigating a diverse and uncertain electorate and managing a large parliamentary party. Even if a leadership change occurs, the party is seen as needing a "credibility reset." The possibility of Labour winning the next election, even with a new leader, remains a subject of analysis, hinging on the party's ability to adapt and appeal to a broad base of voters.

Sources Used:

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Why is Keir Starmer facing questions about his Labour leadership by February 2026?
By February 2026, reports show Keir Starmer's position as Labour leader and Prime Minister is uncertain. This is due to ongoing speculation, unease within the party about poll positions, and questions about his leadership style after a challenging first year.
Q: What do recent polls say about Keir Starmer's future as Labour leader in late 2025?
In late December 2025, a poll found that 50% of voters believed Keir Starmer would be replaced as Prime Minister by the end of 2026. This suggests growing public doubt about his leadership.
Q: Who are the potential successors to Keir Starmer as Labour leader by February 2026?
By February 2026, several figures are mentioned as potential successors. Angela Rayner is often cited as the favorite, with others like Wes Streeting, Andy Burnham, and Shabana Mahmood also discussed.
Q: What warnings have Labour MPs given Keir Starmer regarding his leadership by September 2025?
In September 2025, Labour MPs warned Keir Starmer that he would be removed unless he 'changed course immediately.' This warning was linked to the party's performance in local elections and other political events.
Q: How is Keir Starmer's leadership style being viewed by Labour members and the public by early 2026?
By early 2026, Keir Starmer's leadership style, marked by tight central control and reliance on a close circle, is being questioned. Some believe it has led to a lack of confidence within the party and raised concerns about his judgment.
Q: What is the electoral outlook for Labour amidst this leadership uncertainty by February 2026?
By February 2026, analysts suggest Labour faces a 'credibility reset' whether Starmer stays or goes. The party must navigate a diverse electorate and a large parliamentary party, making electoral success challenging even with a new leader.