New data from early voting states and national surveys show a competitive start to the 2028 presidential race. Names such as Pete Buttigieg, Gavin Newsom, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) are leading the early lists for the Democratic Party. On the Republican side, JD Vance holds a narrow lead in several head-to-head matchups. While these polls are taken years before the actual election, they show how voters currently view these well-known figures. The numbers suggest a divided public, with most leads staying within a small range of three percent or less.
Historical Context and Key Figures
The timeline for these discussions began as early as mid-2025, following the previous election cycle.
In July 2025, polls started comparing JD Vance against potential Democratic rivals.
By early 2026, the focus shifted to Kamala Harris and her future plans.
Currently, candidates like Pete Buttigieg are visiting key states like New Hampshire to support local party members.
"The University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll was released Thursday, a couple of hours before Buttigieg arrived in New Hampshire to campaign with Democrats running in this year's midterm elections." — Fox News Reporting
| Candidate (Democrat) | Candidate (Republican) | Poll Source | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Buttigieg | JD Vance | Emerson College | Vance leads by 1% (44% to 43%) |
| Gavin Newsom | JD Vance | Emerson College | Vance leads by 3% (45% to 42%) |
| AOC | JD Vance | Emerson College | Vance leads by 3% (44% to 41%) |
| Kamala Harris | JD Vance | Overton Insights | Harris leads by 3% (45% to 42%) |
Early polling indicates that while JD Vance leads several individual Democrats, he trails Kamala Harris by a similar margin.
Leading Democratic Figures in New Hampshire
In the key primary state of New Hampshire, a poll by the University of New Hampshire (UNH) shows three specific names at the top: Pete Buttigieg, Gavin Newsom, and AOC.
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Pete Buttigieg has been active on the ground, recently finishing a three-day trip to New England.
Gavin Newsom has also looked toward early-voting states, including a trip to South Carolina.
AOC remains a favorite for the progressive wing of the party, though she currently trails JD Vance by 3% in national head-to-head matchups.
Does the early physical presence of Buttigieg in New Hampshire suggest a formal campaign structure is already being built, or is this standard party support for midterms?
The Republican Field and JD Vance
JD Vance appears to be the primary figure for the Republican Party in early 2028 discussions.
According to USA Today, Vance leads the Republican field.
Other names mentioned in Republican circles include Don Trump Jr., Tucker Carlson, and J.B. Pritzker (on the Democratic side).
Vance currently maintains a thin lead over most Democratic challengers, though his 44% to 45% support level suggests he has not yet captured a majority of the total electorate.
The Role of Kamala Harris
In February 2026, Kamala Harris became a central figure in the race following an announcement regarding her political future.
An Overton Insights poll shows her with 45% support compared to JD Vance's 42%.
This makes her the only Democrat in recent datasets to hold a lead over Vance.
Other Democratic governors, such as Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania) and J.B. Pritzker (Illinois), are also listed as potential candidates, though they have not yet seen the same polling volume as the top three.
Expert Analysis of Polling Data
Analysis from polling groups like Emerson College and Overton Insights highlights how close the 2028 race could be. The margins of 1% to 3% are often within the "margin of error," meaning the leads are not definitive.
Data Insights: The Emerson College poll shows that Buttigieg has the closest margin against Vance among the three leading Democrats (1% difference).
Voter Preferences: AOC holds 41% support against Vance, showing a solid base but also a 3% gap to overcome.
Regional Strength: The UNH Survey Center confirms that name recognition in early states like New Hampshire is currently helping Buttigieg and Newsom.
Findings and Next Steps
The early data for the 2028 election shows a highly competitive environment.
No clear leader: No candidate on either side has moved far ahead of the others.
Narrow margins: Most matchups are decided by 3 points or less.
Early Activity: Candidates are already visiting key states (NH and SC) to build relationships with local voters.
The next steps in this process involve watching for official campaign launches and seeing how these polling numbers change as more people enter the race. The current leads for Vance and Harris show that the public is looking toward established figures, but the narrow gaps leave room for other candidates to gain ground.
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Sources Used:
Fox News: Buttigieg, Newsom, AOC top three in new 2028 poll in key presidential primary state - Provides New Hampshire poll details and Buttigieg’s travel schedule.
Newsweek: JD Vance chances of beating leading Democratic candidates in 2028—Poll - Provides head-to-head Emerson and Overton poll data.
USA Today: Who's running for president 2028; Kamala Harris, Newsom? Latest polls - Provides info on Kamala Harris’s 2026 announcement and the wider field of candidates.
