Kolkata, April 30, 2026 – As assembly elections in West Bengal concluded, a cacophony of exit poll projections has ignited a fierce debate, with Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee vehemently rejecting the forecasts, labelling them a deliberate attempt by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to demoralize Trinamool Congress (TMC) workers. While most pollsters suggest a BJP edge or a close contest, a few foresee a TMC victory, creating a fractured picture ahead of the official results on May 4.
The core of the controversy lies in the disparate predictions, with multiple agencies forecasting a BJP advantage, while others, like Janmat and People's Pulse, project a TMC win. This divergence has fueled accusations from the TMC that the timing and content of these polls are politically motivated, designed to undermine their support base.
Exit Polls: A Spectrum of Predictions
Various exit polls have painted a varied, often contradictory, landscape for the West Bengal assembly.
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BJP Favored: Several pollsters indicate a potential shift in power.
P-Marq projects 150-175 seats for the BJP and 118-138 seats for the TMC.
Matrize suggests the BJP could secure 146-161 seats, with the TMC winning 125-140 seats.
Chanakya Strategies forecasts a BJP victory between 150-160 seats, with the TMC winning 30-40 seats, though another Chanakya projection places TMC at 130-140 seats.
Poll Dairy and Praja Poll also predict a BJP win, with Praja Poll going as far as suggesting 193 seats for the BJP and 100 for the TMC.
TMC Victory Foreseen: A smaller, yet significant, segment of pollsters stand by the incumbent government.
Janmat Poll predicts 195 to 205 seats for the TMC against the BJP's 80-90 seats.
People's Pulse has also predicted a TMC win, with one report indicating over 110 seats for the ruling party.
Close Contest: Some projections highlight a tight race.
ABP's exit poll estimates the TMC winning 125–140 seats, while the BJP is projected at 146–161 seats.
TMC's Accusations and Counter-Narrative
Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has been particularly vocal, dismissing the exit polls as a fabrication orchestrated by the BJP. She alleged that the central forces, deployed during the elections, acted as BJP agents at the direct instruction of Union Home Minister Amit Shah. Banerjee urged her party workers to remain vigilant during the vote counting, implying potential manipulation.
"The BJP wants to break our spirits… paid media to console share market!", she stated, underscoring her belief that these polls are an attempt to sow doubt and discourage her supporters. She also pointed to the high voter turnout in West Bengal, which reportedly reached historic levels of over 92% across both phases, as a sign of public engagement that exit polls may not fully capture.
Broader Election Context
The West Bengal polls were part of a larger electoral exercise across four states and one Union Territory. Exit polls for other regions, such as Assam, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala, also provided varying predictions, with NDA expected to perform strongly in Assam, the DMK potentially returning to power in Tamil Nadu, and the UDF seen as a likely winner in Kerala.
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The high voter turnout in West Bengal has been noted by the Election Commission, with the Chief Election Commissioner describing it as the "highest ever percentage of polling… since Independence."
The official results for the West Bengal assembly elections are scheduled to be declared on May 4, 2026.
