Queensland Electoral Map Changes Could Give LNP Up To 3 More Seats by October 2024

The new Queensland electoral map draft suggests the LNP could gain up to three seats, potentially changing the state's political balance before the October 26 election.
By Newsroom | Politics, Queensland |

Analysis of Queensland’s draft state electoral map overhaul suggests the Liberal National Party (LNP) stands to gain up to three seats. This potential shift in parliamentary power is based on projections by electoral analyst Ben Raue, whose calculations indicate the LNP could net two extra seats, with both the Labor Party and the Katter's Australian Party (KAP) losing one. One specific projection even suggests the Labor-held seat of Macalister, located on Brisbane's southside, could potentially fall into LNP hands. However, the seat of Caboolture is also flagged as likely to become a marginal LNP electorate under the proposed changes.

Public submissions on the draft electoral map proposal are open until April 9. Following this deadline, all submitted feedback will be published for further public comment. This period of public engagement follows an earlier 21-day feedback period, during which all 116 submissions, including those from political parties, interested groups, and individuals, were made public.

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Election map redraw could hand LNP up to three seats, analysis suggests - 1

The process of redrawing electoral boundaries has not been without its discord. Accusations have flown between the major parties regarding the motivations behind their proposed changes. An LNP spokesperson has labelled Labor's submission as "sloppy and unfeasible," accusing the opposition of failing to present a "credible alternative." Conversely, detailed maps within the LNP's submission have been analysed by Ben Raue, suggesting that their proposed changes could flip six Labor-held seats to become notionally LNP. This analysis further suggests that the LNP's submission could potentially increase the government's parliamentary majority from 11 to 25 seats. Labor MP Nikki Boyd has publicly criticised her opponents' proposals, citing examples like the LNP's suggestion to remove half of the city of Bundaberg from the Bundaberg electorate as "laughable" and indicative of "contrived targeting of non-LNP held seats."

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Beyond the partisan skirmishes, the Queensland Redistribution Commission (QRC) is undertaking a broader review of electoral boundaries, with several electorates noted for being unbalanced. Both the LNP and the Greens have advocated for name changes to a number of electorates. The Greens are also pushing for the inclusion of First Nations place names where feasible. This follows a trend where some electorates have already been renamed to honour prominent historical figures or incorporate Indigenous names. The focus of these proposed boundary adjustments extends to inner-Brisbane, with suggestions to redraw and rebrand the Cooper electorate as Victoria Park. No current seats have been proposed for abolition.

The broader political landscape in Queensland has been marked by speculation regarding an LNP victory in the upcoming state election, which is set for October 26. The current Labor government is seeking a fourth term, a feat that has been described as a "tough ask" for a government perceived as "tired." This electoral context frames the current review of electoral boundaries, as parties strategise for potential future compositions of the state parliament.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Q: How could the new Queensland electoral map change the number of seats for political parties?
The draft Queensland state electoral map suggests the Liberal National Party (LNP) could gain up to three seats. Electoral analyst Ben Raue's calculations show the LNP might get two extra seats, while Labor and the Katter's Australian Party could each lose one. The Labor-held seat of Macalister is also seen as potentially falling to the LNP.
Q: When can people give feedback on the proposed Queensland electoral map changes?
Public feedback on the draft Queensland electoral map is open until April 9. After this date, all comments will be shared for more public discussion. This follows an earlier 21-day feedback period.
Q: What are the main arguments between parties about the Queensland electoral map changes?
The LNP has called Labor's submission 'sloppy' and 'unfeasible.' They claim Labor didn't offer a good alternative. Labor MPs have criticized LNP proposals, calling them 'laughable' and 'contrived targeting' of seats not held by the LNP, like changing the Bundaberg electorate boundaries.
Q: Are there any other changes proposed for Queensland electorates besides seat numbers?
Yes, the Queensland Redistribution Commission is reviewing boundaries for unbalanced electorates. The Greens want First Nations place names included where possible, and some electorates might be renamed. For example, the Cooper electorate might become Victoria Park.
Q: How do these electoral map changes relate to the upcoming Queensland state election?
The upcoming Queensland state election is on October 26. The current Labor government is seeking a fourth term, which is seen as difficult for a government perceived as 'tired.' The electoral map changes are happening as parties plan for the election and potential future parliament compositions.