Recent polling indicates a sharp decline in support for New Zealand's National Party and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, with the combined left-leaning parties projected to secure a majority in Parliament.
The latest 1News Verian poll shows National Party support at 30%, a four-point drop, while Prime Minister Luxon's preferred leader rating has fallen to 16%, its lowest since he took the party helm. This downturn coincides with Labour's surge to 37%, a five-point increase. If an election were held now, the coalition of Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori would command 66 seats, surpassing the 58 seats projected for the National, NZ First, and ACT bloc.
The figures suggest a significant shift in the political landscape, potentially altering the balance of power in Wellington. Luxon's personal standing as preferred prime minister also trails behind Labour's Chris Hipkins, who holds 19% support, though Hipkins' rating has also dipped slightly. Winston Peters of NZ First has seen a modest rise in preference, now at 12%.
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Economic Woes and Shifting Sentiments
These electoral trends emerge against a backdrop of persistent economic anxieties. A March poll by RNZ-Reid Research highlighted public dissatisfaction with the government's handling of the economy, with a growing sentiment that New Zealand is headed in the wrong direction. While National has seen slight fluctuations in some polls, such as a Taxpayers Union-Curia survey placing them at 29.8%, the overall trajectory suggests a struggle to impress voters.
| Party | 1News Verian (April 2026) | RNZ-Reid (March 2026) | Taxpayers Union-Curia (April 2026) | Roy Morgan (Feb 2026) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | 30% (↓4) | 30.8% (↓) | 29.8% (↑1.4) | 48.5% (↓3.5) [Govt] |
| Labour | 37% (↑5) | 33.4% (↓1) | 33.4% (↓1.0) | 47% (↑3) [Opp] |
| Greens | 11% (steady) | 7.8% (↓2.7) | 7.8% (↓2.7) | |
| NZ First | 10% (steady) | 13.6% (↑3.9) | 13.6% (↑3.9) | |
| ACT | 7% (↓2) | 9% (↑1.5) | 9% (↑1.5) | |
| Te Pāti Māori | 2% (steady) | 2.6% (↓0.6) | 2.6% (↓0.6) |
Figures in parentheses indicate change since previous poll/month. [Govt] denotes National-led Government total, [Opp] denotes Labour-led Opposition total.
Background Context
The National Party, led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, currently governs in coalition with ACT and New Zealand First. The upcoming general election is scheduled for November 7, 2026. Previous polling in early 2026, such as a Roy Morgan survey, indicated a narrower gap between the governing and opposition blocs, with National-led parties holding a slim lead. However, more recent data suggests a significant erosion of that advantage, pointing to a challenging electoral path ahead for the incumbent government.
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