The National Football League's offensive landscape appears to be undergoing a significant textural change, with teams increasingly adopting "13 personnel" – a formation featuring one running back, three tight ends, and one wide receiver. This tactical shift, championed by teams like the Los Angeles Rams, aims to counter defensive speed and aerial coverage by presenting a physically imposing offensive front.
While the Rams' offensive success wasn't solely attributed to 13 personnel, their usage did outpace league averages. Other NFL teams, when deploying 13 personnel last season, averaged a -0.06 Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, a stark contrast to their overall offensive average of 0.03 EPA per play. This indicates a potential struggle for defenses to adapt when faced with this heavier alignment from multiple teams.
DEFENSIVE ADAPTATIONS AND OFFENSIVE COUNTERS
Defenses, in response to the trend toward heavier personnel, have "alleviées," prioritizing speed and strengthening their aerial defenses. However, 13 personnel is not exclusively a passing formation. It also serves as a tool for "real-time defensive decoding," allowing offenses to identify and exploit defensive weaknesses based on their alignment.
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OFFENSIVE MINDSET DRIVES COACHING TRENDS
The recent NFL coaching cycle underscored a pervasive offensive focus. Six out of ten new head coaching hires previously served as offensive coordinators, with 60% of the appointments favoring offensive-minded candidates. Notably, the cycle did not result in any Black head coaches being appointed.
OFFENSIVE POWER RANKINGS AND TEAM MOVEMENTS
Early projections for the 2026 NFL season highlight shifts in team strength. The Jacksonville Jaguars, after a notable offensive surge last season under head coach Liam Coen, are positioned as a team to watch, with quarterback Trevor Lawrence having been part of MVP discussions.
Other teams seeing changes in their projected power rankings include:
Seattle Seahawks: Ranked #3, returning much of their Super Bowl-winning offense but losing running back Kenneth Walker III to the Chiefs.
Los Angeles Rams: Moving up to #2, potentially building on their recent trends.
New England Patriots: Now at #4, a significant jump from their previous standing, despite losing wide receiver Stefon Diggs.
Kansas City Chiefs: Their offense faces questions, contingent on quarterback Patrick Mahomes's health after surgery. They have added running back Jadarian Price and traded for quarterback Justin Fields.
FORMATION DECONSTRUCTION
Understanding NFL formations is crucial:
| Personnel Grouping | Running Backs | Tight Ends | Wide Receivers |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Personnel | 1 | 4 | |
| 11 Personnel | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 Personnel | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 13 Personnel | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 21 Personnel | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 22 Personnel | 2 | 2 | 1 |
This system of numbering refers to the count of running backs and tight ends on the field. While 11 personnel remains a league-wide majority, there's a discernible "growing trend toward heavier personnel."
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HISTORICAL CONTEXT AND EVOLVING STRATEGIES
Historically, 21 personnel was a default offensive grouping. The evolution now sees formations with multiple tight ends, additional linemen, and fullbacks gaining traction, as seen in the approaches of the AFC champion New England Patriots and NFC champion Seattle Seahawks. This mirrors a broader trend where offensive players' actual usage can differ from their traditional roster designations, illustrating the fluid nature of positional roles.
