MCX Stock Price Rises 113% in One Year Due to Higher Trading Volumes

MCX stock has jumped 113% in just one year, more than doubling investor money. This strong performance is linked to a big increase in trading volumes.
By Newsroom | Stock Market, India |

MCX shares have experienced a notable surge, doubling in value within a year and showing substantial growth over five years. This rapid ascent has prompted questions about its current valuation. The exchange's trading volumes, particularly in futures and options, have expanded significantly, a trend that analysts are observing closely. Examining these volume metrics, alongside company financial data and analyst price targets, is key to understanding the stock's trajectory and its future prospects.

Is MCX stock too expensive after doubling money in just 1 year? A CME case study explains it - 1

Growth in Trading Volumes and Revenue Streams

Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) has seen a significant increase in its Average Daily Traded Volume (ADTV), especially within its futures and options segments. This expansion is a primary driver for the stock's performance.

Is MCX stock too expensive after doubling money in just 1 year? A CME case study explains it - 2

  • Futures ADTV: Reports indicate a projection of futures ADTV reaching ₹66,500 crore in FY26E, rising to ₹80,000 crore in FY27E, and ₹90,000 crore in FY28E, building on earlier figures of around ₹5.5 crore in FY21.

  • Options Premium ADTV: In the options segment, premium ADTV is estimated to reach ₹6,200 crore in FY26, ₹8,100 crore in FY27, and ₹9,500 crore in FY28. For the first two months of FY26, gold options saw a surge in volumes, with notional, premium, and futures ADTV increasing by 218%, 283%, and 161% respectively compared to FY25.

  • Recent Figures: For FY26 year-to-date (YTD), futures ADTV stood at ₹40,600 crore. In January FY26, this figure rose to ₹1,09,700 crore. Options premium ADTV for the quarter fell slightly from the previous quarter but remained significantly higher than the previous year.

Stock Performance and Analyst Outlook

MCX's stock has delivered strong returns for investors, leading to questions about its current valuation and whether it remains a buy.

Is MCX stock too expensive after doubling money in just 1 year? A CME case study explains it - 3

  • Historical Returns: The stock has risen by 113% in one year and 560% over five years. In a 16-month period, it increased by 340%. More recently, shares rallied 132% in eight months, crossing the ₹10,000 mark. One report notes a doubling from its June low.

  • Analyst Ratings and Targets:

  • ICICI Securities: Estimated notional ADTV at ₹3.1 lakh crore in FY26E and ₹4.2 lakh crore in FY27, with premium ADTV reaching ₹4,950 crore and ₹6,550 crore, respectively. They maintained an 'ADD' rating on MCX based on 45 times FY27E adjusted EPS.

  • Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL): Reiterated a 'Buy' rating with a target price of ₹6,500, based on 42x Sept’26E EPS.

  • Rajesh Palviya (Axis Securities): Suggests a 'buy on dips' strategy, with potential targets of ₹6,200-6,300 if the stock crosses ₹5,960.

Corporate Actions and Market Movements

Recent corporate actions and market reactions provide additional context to MCX's stock performance.

Read More: India Batters Struggle Against Finger Spin in T20 World Cup Middle Overs

  • Stock Split: MCX's shareholders approved a sub-division of equity shares, where every one equity share of face value ₹10 would be split into five shares of face value ₹2. The record date for this was set as January 02, 2026.

  • Transaction Fee Revisions: Changes in transaction fees for futures and options contracts have also been noted as a factor impacting the stock's performance. MCX introduced a fixed charge of ₹2.10 per lakh of turnover for futures and ₹41.80 per lakh of premium turnover for options.

  • Market Fluctuations: Despite a 54% jump in Q4 net profit, MCX shares experienced a 7% slump at one point. This suggests that factors beyond immediate profit figures can influence stock prices, such as market sentiment or broader economic conditions.

Operational Performance and Financial Indicators

Key financial metrics, including earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), offer insights into the company's operational efficiency.

  • EBITDA: EBITDA for a recent quarter stood at ₹189.35 crore, compared to ₹216.1 crore in the previous quarter and ₹120.33 crore in the same quarter of the previous year.

  • Commodity Trading: MCX offers trading across diverse commodities, including bullion, energy, base metals, and agri-commodities. The exchange has strategic alliances with international exchanges and trade associations.

Conclusion: A Growth Narrative Under Scrutiny

MCX's stock has demonstrated remarkable growth, driven by increasing trading volumes in its futures and options segments and supported by a revision in transaction fees. Analysts generally maintain a positive outlook, with several reiterating 'Buy' ratings and setting price targets that reflect expected future earnings. However, the stock's rapid ascent also raises pertinent questions about its current valuation. While operational metrics like EBITDA provide a view of underlying business performance, recent market reactions to profit announcements suggest that investor sentiment and broader market dynamics play a crucial role. The upcoming stock split is a corporate action that will alter the share structure but not the fundamental valuation of the company. Further monitoring of trading volume trends and analyst consensus will be essential to assess whether MCX's stock remains an attractive investment opportunity amidst its impressive historical performance.

Read More: Rishikesh-Karnaprayag Rail Project Now Expected to Open by December 2028

Sources Used

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Why has the MCX stock price gone up so much in the last year?
The MCX stock price has risen by 113% in one year because of a large increase in trading volumes, especially in its futures and options markets. This growth in trading activity is a main reason for the stock's strong performance.
Q: What are the latest trading volume figures for MCX futures and options?
For the year 2026, futures trading volume is expected to reach ₹66,500 crore daily and grow to ₹90,000 crore by 2028. In options, the premium trading volume is projected to grow from ₹6,200 crore in 2026 to ₹9,500 crore by 2028. Gold options saw a big jump in volumes in early 2026.
Q: What do analysts think about MCX's stock valuation and future?
Analysts generally have a positive view. ICICI Securities rates it 'ADD' and Motilal Oswal has a 'Buy' rating with a target price of ₹6,500. Some analysts suggest buying the stock when its price dips, with targets around ₹6,200-₹6,300.
Q: Has MCX announced any changes to its shares, like a stock split?
Yes, MCX shareholders approved splitting each share into five. This means one share of ₹10 face value will become five shares of ₹2 face value. The record date for this split was January 2, 2026.
Q: How has MCX's financial performance been recently, for example, its EBITDA?
In a recent quarter, MCX's EBITDA was ₹189.35 crore. This is lower than the ₹216.1 crore in the previous quarter but much higher than the ₹120.33 crore from the same quarter last year, showing improved year-on-year performance.