On February 17, 2026, the government of Madhya Pradesh presented its Economic Survey for the 2025-26 financial year. The report indicates a significant rise in the state’s total economic value, known as the Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP). According to official estimates, the economy is expected to reach ₹16,69,750 crore. This represents an 11.14% increase from the previous year. While Chief Minister Mohan Yadav describes the state as a "rapidly growing economy," the data also reveals a heavy reliance on the farming sector and a rising level of state debt. The survey serves as the foundation for the upcoming state budget, highlighting a mixture of high growth targets and specific fiscal challenges.
Timeline and Key Figures
The Economic Survey was tabled in the State Assembly by Deputy Chief Minister and Finance Minister Jagdish Deora. The data provides a comparison between current prices (which include inflation) and constant prices (which show real growth by removing inflation effects).
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February 17, 2026: Official presentation of the Economic Survey.
FY 2025-26 (Advance Estimates): GSDP projected at ₹16,69,750 crore.
FY 2024-25 (Quick Estimates): GSDP recorded at ₹15,02,428 crore.
Real Growth Rate: When adjusted for inflation (constant prices), the growth rate is 8.04%.
| Metric | Value (Current Prices) | Value (Constant 2011-12 Prices) |
|---|---|---|
| Total GSDP | ₹16,69,750 Crore | ₹7,81,911 Crore |
| Growth Rate | 11.14% | 8.04% |
| Per Capita Income | ₹1,69,050 | ₹76,971 |
Documented Evidence and Fiscal Data
The survey provides a detailed breakdown of where the state's money comes from and how it is managed.
"With financial discipline, transparent governance, and visionary policies, the State’s economy has strengthened significantly." — Mohan Yadav, Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh.
Revenue Status: The state predicts a revenue surplus of ₹2,618 crore.
Debt Levels: The debt-to-GSDP ratio is estimated to reach 31.30%.
Fiscal Deficit: This is projected at 4.6% of the GSDP.
Investment: The state received investment proposals worth ₹30.17 lakh crore over the last year, with ₹8.57 lakh crore currently being implemented.
The primary sector, led by agriculture, remains the largest part of the economy, contributing 43.09% to the state's value added.
Sector Performance: Growth vs. Composition
The economy is divided into three main areas: Primary (farming/mining), Secondary (factories/construction), and Tertiary (services).
Primary Sector: Contributes 43.09%. While food grain production rose by 14.68%, the actual area used for farming decreased by 2.48%. This suggests better yield per acre or a shift in land use.
Secondary Sector: Contributes 19.79%. This sector grew by 9.93%, supported by a 46% rise in capital expenditure (spending on long-term assets like roads and buildings).
Tertiary Sector: Contributes 37.12%. This area saw the fastest growth at 15.8%, driven by hotels, trade, and transport.
Analysis of the data raises a question: Can the state maintain high growth if the industrial sector remains less than half the size of the agricultural sector?
Income and Social Indicators
The survey highlights a sharp increase in the average income of citizens, though the gap between "nominal" and "real" income is notable.
Income Growth: Per capita income at current prices is ₹1,69,050. This is a 4.4-fold increase since 2011-12. However, when looking at constant prices, the average income is ₹76,971.
Education: The government claims a 0% dropout rate for students in classes 1 through 5.
Health: The Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) dropped from 379 to 142. Additionally, 4.42 crore Ayushman health cards have been issued.
While the government highlights these social gains, the 31.3% debt-to-GSDP ratio suggests that much of this progress is funded through borrowing.
Industrial and Investment Climate
The state has designated 2025 as the "Year of Industry" to attract businesses.
Employment: The government allocated 6,125 acres of land to 1,028 industrial units. This is expected to create 1.77 lakh jobs.
Foreign Investment: Between January and September 2025, the state received ₹327.34 crore in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), mostly concentrated in Indore, Ujjain, and Bhopal.
Startups: There are currently 1,723 active startups in the state.
Critics of such data often ask: Is the concentration of investment in only three cities enough to provide balanced growth across the entire state?
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Expert Analysis
Economic observers point to the state’s reliance on external factors for future stability. Experts cited in the Business Standard suggest that the state's development projects depend heavily on two factors:
Revenue Collection: The ability of the state to collect its own taxes efficiently.
Central Share: The amount of money the central government sends back to the state from national taxes.
Jagdish Deora, Finance Minister, noted that the state is attempting to maintain a balance between spending for development and keeping the budget stable. He expects an increase in the state’s share of central taxes to help fund ongoing programs.
Conclusion
The Madhya Pradesh Economic Survey for 2025-26 presents a state economy that is growing at a fast pace of 11.14%. The data shows significant improvements in per capita income and social health markers, such as maternal safety and school attendance.
However, the investigation of these figures reveals three critical areas for future monitoring:
Agriculture Dependency: With over 43% of the economy tied to farming, the state remains vulnerable to weather changes and global crop prices.
Debt Burden: A fiscal deficit of 4.6% and a debt ratio of over 31% indicate that growth is heavily supported by loans.
Real vs. Nominal Wealth: The difference between the ₹1.7 lakh per capita income (current) and the ₹76,971 (real) shows that inflation plays a large role in the reported "growth."
The next step for the state will be the presentation of the full budget, which will reveal exactly how the government plans to pay for these ambitious development goals.
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Sources Used
The Hindu: Madhya Pradesh Economic Survey projects State’s GDP at 11.14% [https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/madhya-pradesh/madhya-pradesh-economic-survey-projects-states-gdp-at-1114/article70645969.ece]
Business Standard: MP Economic Survey pegs strong GSDP sector growth ahead of budget [https://www.business-standard.com/budget/news/mp-economic-survey-pegs-strong-gsdp-sector-growth-ahead-of-budget-1260217008761.html]
India TV News: MP records 11.14% GSDP growth, CM Yadav says 'MP has become a rapidly growing economy' [https://www.indiatvnews.com/madhya-pradesh/mp-projects-over-11-14-gsdp-growth-cm-yadav-says-state-becomes-rapidly-growing-economy-with-focus-on-inclusive-development-2026-02-17-1030681]
New Kerala: MP Economic Survey: 11.14% GSDP Growth, Per Capita Income Rs 1.7L [https://www.newkerala.com/news/a/mp-projects-over-11-pc-gdp-growth-during-751.htm]
Navbharat Times: MP Economic Survey 2025-26 [https://navbharattimes.indiatimes.com/state/madhya-pradesh/bhopal/mp-economic-survey-2025-26-big-leap-in-mps-economy-states-gsdp-increased-at-the-rate-of-11-14/articleshow/128474074.cms]
Dainik Jagran: MP economy soars per capita income 1.69 lakh [https://www.jagran.com/madhya-pradesh/bhopal-mp-economy-soars-per-capita-income-169-lakh-1114-growth-40145387.html]
Asianet News: GSDP increased, improvement in farming, industry and education [https://hindi.asianetnews.com/news/madhya-pradesh-economic-survey-2025-26-growth-development/articleshow-gmunhsi]
