Surge in Tanker Traffic Amidst Lingering Vulnerabilities
Gulf oil exports surged to approximately 10 million barrels per day (mbpd) in June, a significant rebound from the 3 mbpd recorded in May. This sharp increase is largely attributed to a renewed flow of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Between June 22 and June 28, ship broker BRS reported 98 tankers transiting the strait, averaging around 14 vessels daily, marking the highest activity since the recent conflict began. This uptick enabled the clearance of millions of barrels of crude that had been stranded in the Gulf, allowing producers to ramp up output and bringing oil prices closer to pre-conflict levels.
UAE's Pivotal Role in Export Recovery
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) spearheaded this recovery, with its national oil company, ADNOC, employing a tanker shuttle service to bolster export capacity. This strategic move helped sustain the flow of crude to international markets. Meanwhile, exports from Iraq and Kuwait also showed signs of improvement, recovering to roughly 800,000 bpd each, according to Vortexa data.
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Divergent Paths for Export Routes
During the period of heightened conflict, Saudi Arabia and the UAE were able to reroute some of their exports via pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. This option, however, was not as readily available for Iraq and Kuwait, highlighting the differing logistical capacities among Gulf oil producers in the face of disruptions.
A Fragile Stability Returns
While the June figures suggest a considerable operational recovery once shipping conditions stabilized, analysts note that the underlying vulnerability of the Gulf supply chain to geopolitical shocks remains. The recent agreement between the United States and Iran on June 17, aimed at halting the conflict and ensuring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, appears to have been a critical turning point, facilitating the unblocking of crude shipments. The increased willingness of ship owners to send vessels into the region, evidenced by the number of both laden and ballast vessels, points to a conditional return of confidence.
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"The June data shows that while the Gulf supply system remains highly vulnerable to geopolitical shocks, it is also capable of a relatively swift operational recovery when shipping conditions stabilise."
Despite the rebound, regional exports in June remained 40% below pre-war levels, indicating that a full restoration of pre-conflict export volumes has yet to be achieved. The interplay between geopolitical events and the physical movement of oil underscores the complex and often precarious nature of global energy markets.
