The University of Connecticut (UConn) men’s basketball team has returned to a projected No. 1 seed for the upcoming national tournament. This change happened after Houston lost a key game, allowing the Huskies to move back to the top line of most expert models. However, investigators of the sport note that holding a No. 1 seed may bring a difficult choice regarding where the team plays its most important games. The current rankings show a very close race between five or six top teams, meaning any loss in the final weeks of the season could quickly change UConn’s position.
Recent Changes in National Rankings
The path for UConn has not been a straight line over the last month. Different experts have moved the team up and down based on daily results from across the country.
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In early February, Iowa State and Illinois both briefly moved ahead of UConn in some models after winning big games.
By February 17, 2026, USA Today and ESPN placed UConn back on the No. 1 line.
The Huskies currently share the top spots with Arizona, Duke, and Michigan.
Together, these four teams have a record of 35 wins and only 6 losses in "Quad 1" games, which are the hardest games on the schedule.
UConn is currently a No. 1 seed, but their final rank depends on whether they can beat Big East rivals in the coming weeks.
Ranking Comparisons by Source
The following table shows how different sports analysts view the top teams as of mid-February 2026.
| Analysis Source | UConn Status | Top Overall Seed | Notable Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA Today | No. 1 Seed | Arizona / UConn | Iowa State moves to a high No. 2. |
| Joe Lunardi (ESPN) | No. 1 Seed | Arizona | Duke and UConn are competing for the East. |
| CBS Sports | No. 2 Seed | Arizona | Illinois briefly jumped UConn for a top spot. |
| Historical Data | No. 1 (2024) | UConn | First time in school history (March 2024). |
The Geographic Choice
A major point of discussion among experts is whether UConn is better off as a No. 1 seed or a No. 2 seed. This is because the location of the games matters for fans and travel.
"Husky Nation has to weigh potential Elite Eight games in Washington, D.C. (against Duke as a 2-seed) or in Houston (versus the Cougars as a 1-seed)." — Joe Lunardi, Bracketologist.
This "conundrum" or difficult choice suggests that:
A No. 1 seed might force the team to play in Houston, Texas, which is far from their home base.
A No. 2 seed could allow them to play in Washington, D.C., which is much closer to their supporters.
Is it possible that a slightly lower rank actually provides a team with a better home-court advantage? This remains a probing question for the team's leadership as they finish the season.
Strength of the Big East Conference
While UConn is performing at a high level, their conference, the Big East, is viewed as having fewer top-tier teams this year compared to others.
The Big Ten is expected to send 11 teams to the tournament.
The SEC follows with 10 teams, while the ACC and Big 12 have 8 or 9 each.
The Big East is currently projected to only send 3 teams: UConn, Creighton, and Marquette.
This gap in conference depth means UConn has fewer chances to earn "quality wins" at the end of the year. Their biggest hurdle is St. John's, the only team in the conference to beat them this season. To keep their No. 1 seed, investigators suggest UConn must likely win the Big East Tournament.
Expert Analysis
Experts agree that the "NET" rankings and "Wins Above Bubble" (WAB) are the main tools used to pick the seeds. Adam Zucker and other analysts note that even teams with several losses, like Auburn in the past or Arizona now, can take the top spot if they play a very difficult schedule.
Arizona currently holds a slight edge for the No. 1 overall seed because they have 10 "Quad 1" wins. Duke is also a top contender because they rank very high in the efficiency metrics used by the selection committee. Analysts suggest that the final order of these four or five teams will not be settled until "Selection Sunday."
Read More: Iowa State Beats No. 2 Houston in Close Game
Summary of Findings
UConn has regained its status as a top-seeded team, but this position is not yet secure. The team’s final placement involves a trade-off between a high rank and a nearby location.
Current Status: UConn is a No. 1 seed in most models but a No. 2 in others.
Key Rival: St. John's remains the primary threat to UConn's standing in the Big East.
Geography: There is an active debate about whether playing in Washington D.C. as a No. 2 seed is better than playing in Houston as a No. 1 seed.
Next Steps: The team must compete in the Big East Tournament to finalize their resume for the selection committee.
Primary Sources
USA Today Analysis (Feb 17, 2026): NCAA tournament bracketology: Who is rising
ClutchPoints / Joe Lunardi (Feb 17, 2026): UConn's No. 1 seed 'conundrum'
CBS Sports Projection (Feb 7, 2026): Illinois jumps UConn for final No. 1 spot
ESPN Bracketology Guide: Joe Lunardi's watch guide
CBS Sports Update (Feb 2, 2026): Iowa State jumps UConn for fourth No. 1 seed
