South Australia Election 2024: Labor Wins, One Nation Surges Past Liberals

Labor has won the South Australia election with at least 35 seats, a strong majority. One Nation is now a major force, taking seats from the Liberals.
By Newsroom | Politics, South Australia |

One Nation Surges, Edging Liberals in Key Contests

South Australia's recent state election saw the Labor Party secure a decisive victory, retaining government with a strengthened mandate. However, the most striking development was the significant advance of One Nation, which has emerged as a primary opposition force in numerous Adelaide electorates, surpassing the Liberal Party in many instances on primary votes. This shift redraws the state's political landscape, particularly in metropolitan Adelaide, where Labor increased its dominance. The Liberal Party's support appears to have frayed, especially in regional areas, where the contests have become fiercely multi-candidate affairs.

Election map shows how One Nation became Labor's main opposition in much of Adelaide - 1

The election outcome projects Labor to win at least 35 seats in the 47-member House of Assembly, a comfortable majority. Conversely, the Liberal Party's presence in parliament has been substantially reduced, with estimates placing them with four to five seats. One Nation, in this evolving environment, is on track to claim a handful of lower house seats, with some analyses suggesting as many as four. The precise number of seats for each party is still being finalized as preference counts continue, with several contests remaining too close to call definitively.

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Election map shows how One Nation became Labor's main opposition in much of Adelaide - 2

One Nation's rise is particularly pronounced in Adelaide's outer suburbs, where it is increasingly positioned as the main challenger to Labor, a role previously held by the Liberals. This transition suggests a fundamental reorientation of the state's political dynamics, moving beyond traditional two-party contests. While Labor's primary vote remained relatively stable, its preferences are crucial in determining outcomes, often flowing to independents and Liberal candidates ahead of One Nation in some scenarios, though this dynamic is being reshaped by One Nation's growing presence.

Election map shows how One Nation became Labor's main opposition in much of Adelaide - 3

Regional Divisions and Liberal Struggles

The narrative in regional South Australia presents a different picture. The Liberal Party's long-standing hold on these seats has been weakening over recent elections, and this trend appears to have continued. Here, One Nation and independent candidates have become significant contenders, creating highly competitive races where preference flows will likely determine the final results. This fragmentation of support in regional areas contributes to the Liberal Party's overall diminished standing.

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Election map shows how One Nation became Labor's main opposition in much of Adelaide - 4

The Counting Conundrum

The complexity of preference allocation has become a central feature of this election's analysis. In many seats, the Electoral Commission has had to navigate intricate preference flows between Labor and One Nation, as well as One Nation and the Liberals. Early indications from preference counting estimates suggest that One Nation could win seats where it is currently leading on primary votes, even if those are estimated preferences between Labor and One Nation.

Background to the Shift

This electoral outcome arrives against a backdrop of broader national political trends, where minor parties, including One Nation, have seen increased support, signalling a move towards a more complex and less predictable political environment. The South Australian election is being watched nationally as a barometer of these wider shifts. The surge in support for parties like One Nation is interpreted as a reflection of a structural change in Australian politics, with potential implications for national policy debates on issues such as immigration and economic strategy. The outcome challenges established political structures and suggests a parliament where traditional alignments may be less definitive.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Who won the South Australia state election in 2024?
The Labor Party won the South Australia state election. They have secured enough seats to form the government with a strong majority.
Q: How did One Nation perform in the South Australia election?
One Nation performed very well, becoming a major opposition force. They have overtaken the Liberal Party in many areas, especially in Adelaide.
Q: What is the estimated number of seats for each party after the South Australia election?
Labor is projected to win at least 35 seats. The Liberal Party is expected to have only 4 or 5 seats. One Nation could win up to 4 seats.
Q: Where did One Nation see the biggest increase in support in South Australia?
One Nation's support grew the most in the outer suburbs of Adelaide. They are now the main challenger to Labor in these areas, replacing the Liberals.
Q: Why are the election results in regional South Australia different?
In regional South Australia, the Liberal Party's support has weakened over time. One Nation and independent candidates are now strong contenders in these areas, making races very close.
Q: What does the rise of One Nation mean for South Australian politics?
The rise of One Nation signals a big change in South Australian politics. It shows a move away from traditional two-party contests and suggests a more complex parliament.