US Soldier Charged for Betting on Maduro Raid Success

A US soldier allegedly made $400,000 by betting on the success of the Maduro raid before it happened. This is the first criminal case of its kind in the US.
By Newsroom | Crime, National Security |

Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a U.S. Special Forces soldier, faces federal charges for allegedly exploiting insider information concerning the January raid that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Prosecutors contend Van Dyke placed multiple bets on the prediction market site 'Polymarket', wagering on the success of the operation before it became public. These actions, prosecutors allege, allowed him to profit by approximately $400,000.

The Department of Justice (DOJ) announced charges including unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain and theft of nonpublic government information. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal agency overseeing prediction markets, has also filed a parallel civil complaint. The CFTC seeks restitution, penalties, and bans against Van Dyke.

Van Dyke was reportedly involved in planning the operation to capture Maduro. Prosecutors suggest that between early December and early January, Van Dyke engaged in 13 bets on Polymarket related to American forces invading Venezuela and detaining its head of state. Evidence indicates Van Dyke requested Polymarket to delete his account after online sleuths and media reports drew attention to his substantial payouts. He claimed he had lost access to the email associated with the account.

Read More: Soldier Charged for Using Secret Mission Info to Bet

During an unrelated event, President Donald Trump stated he had not heard of the alleged betting but would investigate. Trump has previously condemned the practice of insiders profiting from prediction market sites. FBI Assistant Director in Charge James C. Barnacle Jr. described Van Dyke's alleged actions as a betrayal to his fellow soldiers.

This marks the first instance of U.S. officials levying criminal charges over prediction market wagers, though similar cases have emerged internationally. Last month, Israeli authorities arrested individuals on suspicion of using classified information to bet on military operations in Iran. Additionally, Kalshi, another prediction market platform, recently sanctioned congressional candidates for wagering on election outcomes. White House officials issued warnings to staff regarding the use of private information for trading on prediction markets.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is Gannon Ken Van Dyke accused of doing?
Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a US Special Forces soldier, is accused of using secret information about the January raid to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to bet on a prediction market. Prosecutors say he made about $400,000 from these bets.
Q: What charges does Van Dyke face?
He faces federal charges for illegally using secret government information for personal profit and stealing nonpublic government information. The CFTC has also filed a civil case against him.
Q: How did Van Dyke allegedly bet on the raid?
Prosecutors claim Van Dyke placed 13 bets on a site called Polymarket between December and January about the success of American forces invading Venezuela and capturing its leader.
Q: What happened after attention was drawn to his bets?
Evidence suggests Van Dyke asked Polymarket to delete his account after people noticed his large winnings and media reports came out. He said he could no longer access the email linked to the account.
Q: Is this the first time something like this has happened?
Yes, this is the first time US officials have brought criminal charges over bets on prediction markets. However, similar cases have happened in other countries, and other US platforms have also taken action against people betting on political outcomes.