ESPN's projections for the upcoming 2026 NFL season place Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold just shy of the 4,000-yard passing mark, forecasting 3,924 yards with a 24-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio. This projection comes as the team faces significant challenges in its offensive backfield, with both Kenneth Walker III (Super Bowl MVP last season) and Zach Charbonnet (out to start the season with an ACL tear) unavailable.
The Seattle receiving corps is expected to remain largely consistent, offering Darnold familiar targets. However, the absence of key running backs will necessitate a stronger emphasis on establishing a robust ground game, a task complicated by these personnel losses.
Differing Projections and Past Performance
While ESPN anticipates a slight dip in yardage from Darnold's 2025 performance, some believe he could exceed his previous season's output. Eric Williams, quoted by Sporting News, suggested that Darnold could surpass his own benchmarks from the past year. This sentiment is contrasted by warnings of a potential "nightmare scenario" where Darnold might regress to his earlier career form, despite leading the Seahawks to a Super Bowl victory.
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Darnold's statistical output last season presented a mixed picture. From Weeks 1-9, he recorded 16 touchdowns against five interceptions. However, in the latter half of the season (Weeks 10-18), his performance saw a shift:
Touchdowns: 9 (tied for 15th)
Interceptions: 9 (tied for 2nd)
EPA/att: 0.02 (15th)
Positive play rate: 49.1% (8th)
ESPN's Ben Solak noted that decision-making issues contributed to Darnold's late-season struggles, with a significant portion of his interceptions occurring in a single game against the Rams.
Team Outlook and Draft Considerations
The Seahawks appear to be "betting on Sam Darnold" to make a leap in the upcoming season, with some within the organization expressing confidence in his potential. Having found a seemingly stable environment in Seattle after a nomadic career, Darnold's ability to build chemistry with his receiving unit, including players like Jaxson Smith-Njigba, and a promising tight end group, is seen as a positive.
However, the team's offensive line surrendered over 45 sacks last season, a factor that may influence draft strategies. The potential availability of players like Garrett Nussmeier, a college quarterback noted for his elusiveness and ability to avoid pressure, is being discussed as a way to potentially "usher in a new era" and address the sack issues.
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