Labor Party plan to stop One Nation in Farrer by-election helps Liberal leader Angus Taylor

The resignation of former Liberal leader Sussan Ley has triggered a high-stakes by-election in the seat of Farrer. While the seat is a traditional stronghold for the Coalition, new data shows a rise in support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation. This shift has caused senior Labor Party members to call for an unusual plan: joining the race specifically to push One Nation to the bottom of the ballot. The move aims to protect the Liberal Party from a One Nation win, while also testing the new Liberal leader, Angus Taylor. Investigators are looking at how this strategy might change the balance of power in regional Australia.

Timeline of Events and Key Figures

The current political shift follows a quick change in leadership and new polling data:

• February 5, 2026: Police begin a major investigation into a missing person case, which coincides with rising local political tension.

• February 13, 2026: Sussan Ley is removed as Liberal leader. She announces her resignation from politics shortly after. Angus Taylor becomes the new leader of the Liberal Party.

• February 14–16, 2026: One Nation confirms it will run a candidate in Farrer. Pauline Hanson claims the party has a large membership base in the area.

• February 18, 2026: Former Premiers Peter Beattie and Bob Carr urge the Labor Party to run a candidate in Farrer to ensure One Nation is placed last on preference lists.

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"One Nation cannot win Farrer if all parties and independents preference One Nation last." — Peter Beattie, Former Queensland Premier.

Collected Evidence and Data

Recent polling and public statements show a narrowing gap between major and minor parties.

The core signal is that the Farrer by-election is no longer a safe seat for the Liberals; it has become a three-way struggle between the Coalition, One Nation, and Independent candidates.

Analysis of Political Strategies

Labor’s Decision to Enter the Race

There is an internal debate within the Labor Party about whether to run a candidate in a seat they are unlikely to win.

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• The "Block" Strategy: Supporters like Peter Beattie argue that by running, Labor can control where their voters' second choices go. By directing preferences to the Liberals over One Nation, they can stop Pauline Hanson's party from taking the seat.

• The Cost Concern: Some internal sources suggest that running a candidate is expensive and may not be worth the effort if the goal is only to help the Liberal Party.

• The Risk: Is it possible that Labor’s entry could accidentally help a third-party independent instead of the Liberals?

The Coalition’s Internal Rivalry

The Liberal and National parties must decide if they will run against each other or present a single candidate.

• Joint Effort: Nationals leader David Littleproud and Angus Taylor are discussing a combined front to stop the vote from splitting.

• The Preference Trap: One Nation hopes to get enough "second-choice" votes from National Party supporters to overtake the Liberal candidate. This relies on rural voters feeling the major parties no longer represent them.

Angus Taylor’s First Test

The new Liberal leader is under pressure to define his platform immediately.

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• Immigration Policy: Angus Taylor has moved toward a stricter stance on migration. However, some observers note this contrasts with his own family history and his grandfather’s work bringing refugees to Australia.

• Voter Perception: Some Labor members are attempting to frame Taylor as an ineffective leader. The Farrer result will show if voters in regional NSW accept his new direction or prefer the more hardline views of One Nation.

Expert Observations

Political analysts suggest that the rise of One Nation is linked to specific local concerns. Tom McIlroy notes that Taylor must stabilize the Coalition quickly to avoid losing ground to the "anti-woke" and "anti-immigration" rhetoric that Pauline Hanson uses.

Furthermore, Peter van Onselen suggests that the Labor Party is "licking its lips" at the chance to fight Angus Taylor, believing his past political record makes him an easy target in a general election.

Investigation Findings and Next Steps

The evidence suggests that the Farrer by-election will be a primary indicator of the national mood before the next federal election.

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1. Preference Power: The final result will likely depend on "how-to-vote" cards rather than who gets the most first-place votes.

2. One Nation Surge: Data confirms that One Nation is no longer a fringe player in regional areas; their 21% polling in some regions makes them a direct threat to Coalition seats.

3. Labor’s Role: The Labor National Executive Committee (NEC) must soon decide if they will spend funds on a candidate whose only job is to manage preferences.

Unresolved Question: Will the Liberal and National parties agree on a single candidate, or will their internal competition allow One Nation to move ahead in the count?

Primary Sources

• Put One Nation last: Labor heavyweights want the party to contest byelection - Context on Labor's preference strategy.

• A four-way tussle in Farrer may tell us what’s really going on - Analysis of the four-way race and preference flows.

• Angus Taylor’s log cabin story contradicts immigration stance - Expert opinion on leadership and policy consistency.

• The Coalition leads in Victorian poll, One Nation at 21% - Statistical data on party support levels.

• Teals to the left, One Nation to the right: Farrer test for Taylor - Background on the seat and candidate challenges.

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