Polling stations opened today, February 26th, for the Gorton and Denton by-election in Greater Manchester. The contest, triggered by the resignation of Andrew Gwynne, has emerged as a closely fought three-way race, with Labour, the Green Party, and Reform UK all vying for the parliamentary seat. Recent polls indicate a knife-edge situation, suggesting that voter decisions in the final hours could prove crucial in determining the outcome.
A Vacant Seat and Numerous Candidates
A by-election is held when a Member of Parliament (MP) leaves their seat between general elections. In Gorton and Denton, Andrew Gwynne's resignation created this vacancy. Voters are presented with a diverse field of 11 candidates, representing a range of political parties, from the traditional Conservative and Liberal Democrats to the Green Party, Labour, Reform UK, and smaller groups like the Official Monster Raving Loony Party and the Communist League.
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Labour's Candidate: Angeliki Stogia
Green Party's Candidate: Hannah Spencer
Reform UK's Candidate: Matt Goodwin
Other Candidates: Nick Buckley (Advance UK), Charlotte Cadden (Conservative Party), Dan Clarke (Libertarian Party), Sebastian Moore (Social Democratic Party), Joseph O'Meachair (Rejoin EU Party), Jackie Pearcey (Liberal Democrats), Sir Oink A-Lot (The Official Monster Raving Loony Party), Hugo Wils (Communist League).
The results are expected to be declared overnight and into Friday.
Polls Show a Tight Three-Way Race
Multiple recent polls paint a picture of an exceptionally close contest. An Opinium poll of 401 individuals placed the Green Party and Labour neck-and-neck at 28% each, with Reform UK close behind at 27%. This contrasts with an earlier Omnisis survey of 452 respondents, which showed the Green Party leading with 22%, followed by Reform UK at 20% and Labour at 18%. A significant portion of respondents in both polls remained undecided.
| Pollster | Green Party | Labour | Reform UK | Undecided/Won't Vote |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opinium | 28% | 28% | 27% | (Implied) |
| Omnisis | 22% | 18% | 20% | 40% (27% Undecided, 13% Won't Vote) |
The presence of a large undecided vote suggests that voter turnout and late shifts in allegiance could significantly impact the final result.
The Dynamics of Tactical Voting
A key feature of this by-election appears to be tactical voting, where individuals vote not for their preferred candidate but for another candidate perceived to have a better chance of defeating a party they strongly oppose. Reports suggest that anti-Reform UK voters are considering backing the Green Party as a strategic move to prevent Reform UK's candidate, Matt Goodwin, from winning.
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"The poll suggests that tactical voting could easily swing the contest, with anti-Reform voters significantly more likely to switch to the Greens than to Labour." - Bylinetimes.com
Labour's leadership, including Prime Minister Keir Starmer, has publicly framed the election as a direct contest between Labour and Reform UK, emphasizing their candidate Angeliki Stogia's position to defeat Reform.
However, tactical voting websites and some analyses suggest that the Green Party's candidate, Hannah Spencer, may be the more effective choice for those seeking to block Reform UK.
The Green Party sees Reform UK's candidate selection as a boost to their campaign, potentially galvanizing voters against Reform.
Contrasting Campaign Strategies and Perceptions
Both Labour and the Green Party are actively seeking to position themselves as the strongest option to oppose Reform UK.
Labour has focused its campaign on themes of community unity and opposition to what they describe as "divisive politics" embodied by Reform UK. Privately, Labour sources have indicated a belief that anti-Reform votes could shift to the Greens if the latter are seen as having a stronger chance of winning. Labour maintains it is the only party with a genuine path to retaining the seat.
The Green Party, with Hannah Spencer as its candidate, has been actively promoted by tactical voting advocates as the most viable option to defeat Reform UK. A win for Spencer would represent a significant increase in Green representation in Westminster.
Reform UK's Position
Reform UK, with Nigel Farage's party represented by candidate Matt Goodwin, is presented as a significant contender. Some analyses suggest that Reform UK's chances of winning depend on the Labour and Green vote remaining divided. The party's selection of Goodwin is noted as potentially energizing the Green campaign, indicating a dynamic interplay of strategies.
Conclusion
The Gorton and Denton by-election is characterized by a tight three-way race, with Labour, the Green Party, and Reform UK all within striking distance. The emerging importance of tactical voting appears to be a central factor, with voters potentially making strategic choices to influence the outcome. The substantial number of undecided voters further adds to the unpredictability of the result. The final tally will depend on which party can effectively mobilize its base and how tactical decisions play out among the electorate.
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Sources
BBC News: Voters in parts of Greater Manchester are heading to the polls for the Gorton and Denton by-election. Polling stations opened at 07:00 GMT and will close at 22:00 to decide who becomes the new MP for the constituency. (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3v7z9dxe0qo)
Bylinetimes.com: Exclusive Poll: Anti-Reform Tactical Voters Poised to Defeat Nigel Farage's Party in Gorton and Denton By-election. The poll suggests that tactical voting could easily swing the contest, with anti-Reform voters significantly more likely to switch to the Greens than to Labour. (https://bylinetimes.com/2026/02/24/exclusive-poll-anti-reform-tactical-voters-poised-to-defeat-nigel-farages-party-in-gorton-and-denton-by-election/)
The London Economic: As campaigning enters its final day ahead of voters going to the polls tomorrow, a new poll has shown that things couldn’t be closer between Labour, the Greens and Reform. (https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/gorton-and-denton-by-election-poll-labour-reform-greens-vote-403558/)
Manchester Evening News: A constituency poll from Opinium - based on a sample of 401 people - puts the Greens on 28 per cent, Labour on 28 per cent and Reform on 27 per cent. (https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/gorton-denton-byelection-result-poll-33490213)
UK FactCheck: The Omnisis survey of 452 respondents, conducted ahead of polling day on Thursday 26 February, places the Greens on 20 per cent, Reform UK on 17 per cent and Labour on 15 per cent. (https://www.ukfactcheck.com/article/170/omnisis-poll-puts-greens-ahead-of-labour-in-gorton-and-denton-days-before-by-election)
Freetips.com: Gorton & Denton By-Election Betting Preview - Odds, Polls, Context. Several constituency-specific polls for this by-election campaign have been published in recent days. Tactical voting is influencing the race, with some Labour supporters backing Greens to prevent a Reform UK win. (https://www.freetips.com/politics/gorton-denton-by-election-betting-preview-20260225-0005/)
Full Fact: Voters in Gorton and Denton head to the polls on Thursday in what is widely being viewed as a three-way contest between the Green Party, the Labour Party and Reform UK. (https://fullfact.org/politics/gorton-and-denton-by-election-round-up/)
AOL (via pollcheck.co.uk): Gorton and Denton By-Election What is this by-election? A by-election is held when a parliamentary seat becomes vacant between general elections. (https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/by-elections/gorton-denton)
