California Governor Race: Becerra and Hilton Lead Primary

Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton are leading the race to be California's next governor. This is a change from earlier worries that two Republicans might make it to the final vote.
By Newsroom | Politics, California |

PRIMARY PUSH NEARS END, TOP TWO EMERGE

Xavier Becerra, the Democrat, and Steve Hilton, the Republican, are increasingly positioned to secure the top two spots in California's gubernatorial primary, setting the stage for a potential head-to-head contest in November. This projection comes as the June 2 primary looms, a significant shift from earlier Democratic anxieties about a party shutout.

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A recent Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll, conducted between May 14-18 with 1,707 California adults surveyed (986 likely voters), indicates Hilton leading Steyer by five points. This same poll found that six in ten likely voters view the top-two primary system favorably.

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COMPETITION INTENSIFIES AS VOTERS CONSIDER CHOICES

The final weeks leading up to the primary have seen a tightening race. =Hilton's ascent appears linked to an April endorsement from President Trump, while Becerra's surge is noted following the withdrawal of a key Democratic rival.= Hilton himself has framed the situation as a binary choice, stating, "Only one of us can make the top two." Becerra attributes his gains to increased voter attention.

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Several polls highlight this competitive landscape:

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  • A PPIC poll from mid-May placed Hilton within three points of Becerra, with figures at 20 percent and 23 percent, respectively, prior to recent Democratic candidate consolidation.

  • The Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, surveying over 5,000 likely voters, shows Becerra at 25 percent, Hilton at 21 percent, and Steyer at 19 percent.

  • A final Emerson College poll indicates Becerra at 28 percent, with Steyer and Hilton in a statistical tie for second at 21 percent, both within the margin of error.

IMPLOSION AND CONSOLIDATION SHAPE THE DEMOCRATIC FIELD

The path for Becerra has been partially cleared by the implosion of Eric Swalwell's campaign following sexual misconduct allegations. His subsequent resignation from Congress left a void that boosted other Democratic contenders. Amidst this, calls from within the Democratic party urged lower-polling candidates to withdraw, a move aimed at preventing a scenario where two Republicans advanced to the general election.

SHIFTING SENTIMENTS ON PRIMARY SYSTEM

Despite the contest's unfolding drama, the PPIC poll suggests a sustained, if somewhat fractured, voter approval for the top-two primary system, with six in ten likely voters deeming it "mostly a good thing." However, this sentiment is juxtaposed against a proposed initiative seeking to abolish the current system and revert to closed party primaries, which the poll indicates may face considerable resistance.

Voter decisions remain fluid for many, with 40% of decided voters expressing openness to changing their minds.= Hilton's supporters appear the most steadfast, with 73% indicating they will not change their vote, compared to 52% of Becerra voters and 48% of Steyer voters.

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THE BROADER CONTEXT: CANDIDATE VOLUME AND DEMOCRATIC STRATEGY

California voters are navigating a ballot listing 61 gubernatorial candidates. The strategic consolidation within the Democratic party, aiming to ensure representation in the general election, stands in contrast to the Republican field where Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco were previously seen as leading contenders. The endorsement of Hilton by Donald Trump is also a notable factor in the shifting dynamics.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Who is expected to be the top two candidates in the California governor's race?
Xavier Becerra, the Democrat, and Steve Hilton, the Republican, are predicted to be the top two candidates. This means they will likely face each other in the November election.
Q: What do the latest polls show for the California governor primary?
Recent polls show Steve Hilton leading Tom Steyer by five points. Xavier Becerra is also performing well, with different polls placing him slightly ahead of Hilton or in a statistical tie.
Q: Why did Eric Swalwell's campaign end?
Eric Swalwell's campaign ended after he resigned from Congress due to sexual misconduct allegations. This event changed the dynamics of the Democratic field.
Q: How do California voters feel about the top-two primary system?
About six in ten likely voters in California think the top-two primary system is a good thing. However, some people want to change it back to closed party primaries.
Q: Are voters likely to change their minds before the primary?
Many voters are still deciding. About 40% of voters who have chosen a candidate say they might change their minds. Hilton's supporters seem the most decided.