A new study estimates that dependants of migrants allowed into the UK under policies enacted during Boris Johnson's premiership could cost the nation £35 billion by 2028. This figure, presented by the Centre for Migration Control (CMC), highlights a projected fiscal impact that was, according to the CMC, not fully accounted for in official reports by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). The CMC's findings, shared on January 29, 2025, contend that the decisions to permit skilled workers and postgraduate students to bring families and children with them have created a substantial, long-term financial burden.
The CMC's Calculation
The research, promoted by outlets like GB News and American Renaissance, posits that the influx of dependants, termed the 'Boriswave', necessitates increased public spending. This spending is attributed to infrastructure, healthcare, schools, public transport, and other public works required to accommodate these individuals. While the CMC's figures do factor in potential contributions from dependants via income tax, VAT, and council tax, the organization asserts its calculation method is conservative. It applies costs only to migrants remaining in the UK for at least four years, and attributes indirect taxes from households to workless adult dependants, potentially overestimating the net revenue.
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Broader Concerns and Reform UK's Stance
The 'Boriswave' has become a focal point for Reform UK, a political party advocating for significant changes to the UK's immigration system. Reform UK has proposed scrapping Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) and requiring all migrants, including those with existing settled status, to reapply for five-year visas with stricter salary thresholds. This approach aims to address concerns about the impact of legal migrants on welfare systems and taxpayer costs.
Nigel Farage, a prominent figure in Reform UK, has stated that his party's proposals would ensure welfare benefits are reserved solely for UK citizens. The party also suggests increasing the required residency period to seven years from the current five and imposing tighter restrictions on bringing spouses and children. The implication, as presented by Reform UK, is that such measures would lead to wage increases for British workers and reduce the overall financial strain on the public purse.
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Context and Critiques
The debate around the 'Boriswave' and its financial implications emerges against a backdrop of increased visa issuances. Research from the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS) in February 2025 indicated that over 2 million visas were issued between January 2021 and June 2024 to migrants eligible for ILR. The CPS warns that these individuals could represent a long-term financial burden, gaining access to the NHS, social housing, and Universal Credit starting in 2026.
The CMC's founder, Robert Bates, has framed the 'Boriswave' as a "disastrous impact" and a "huge drain on the taxpayer," citing a perceived "vast cultural change" alongside the financial costs. He has criticized the Conservative Party's decision to allow dependants, stating that the Home Office's initial estimate of 5,000-20,000 dependants arriving was "vastly underestimated."
The discourse surrounding the 'Boriswave' highlights a deep division in political perspectives on immigration, focusing on economic costs, public services, and national identity.
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