David Farley of One Nation has secured the party's first-ever seat in the House of Representatives, winning the Farrer by-election. The victory, achieved with approximately 58% of the two-candidate-preferred vote against independent Michelle Milthorpe, marks the end of a 77-year Coalition hold on the southern New South Wales electorate.
The win is being framed by party leader Pauline Hanson as a significant escalation, moving beyond local gains to challenging the established major parties. "It's not just a win for One Nation or Pauline Hanson… It’s not just One Nation any more. We are now taking on the major political parties," Hanson stated on Sky News. She has further articulated an ambition to build One Nation into a party "capable of forming government," a goal seemingly emboldened by recent polling indicating rising support at the expense of the Coalition.
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The Farrer result, with One Nation's Farley garnering over 57% of the two-candidate-preferred vote after more than 80% of ballots were counted, represents a substantial collapse in the Coalition's vote. Liberal frontbencher Bridget McKenzie has alluded to potential future collaborations, suggesting the Coalition could work with One Nation to form government. This openness follows a year after the seat was secured by Sussan Ley with over 43% of the primary vote.
Hanson's pronouncements suggest a strategic push for more lower house seats in the lead-up to the next federal election. One Nation's electoral progress has been noted as a notable development, with an earlier breakthrough in South Australia also being described as an "ominous sign" for larger parties.
Historical Context and Party Trajectory
The Farrer by-election victory is significant as it is the first time One Nation has secured a seat in the federal lower house under the party's banner, a milestone achieved by David Farley. Pauline Hanson herself has not previously held a lower house seat for her party.
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One Nation's journey has seen fluctuating support since its inception. While Pauline Hanson has become a prominent figure associated with anti-immigration rhetoric and parliamentary provocations, the party's electoral success has been described as historically tempered by Australia's voting system and voter resistance. Co-founder David Oldfield was notably expelled following public disputes with Hanson.
Reactions and Future Implications
Speaking on the outcome, Sussan Ley commented that "voters never get it wrong," a sentiment offered amidst the Coalition's substantial loss. The Liberal party, represented by figures such as Angus Taylor, has indicated a need to learn "hard lessons" from the Farrer result.
One Nation has, however, restricted media access to its election night events, with outlets including The Guardian reportedly being excluded. Hanson has previously expressed frustration with critical coverage of her party. The party's stated goal now is to consolidate its gains and position itself as a viable contender for government, a prospect that commentators suggest may be limited in the near future.
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