One Nation Leads Labor in National Poll After Budget

One Nation is now ahead of Labor in national primary votes, a change from previous polls. This comes after the recent Federal Budget.
By Newsroom | Politics, Australia |

National Primary Vote Sees Hanson's Party Surpass Governing Party

A recent Roy Morgan Snap SMS poll, released this week, indicates a notable shift in the national political landscape. Pauline Hanson's One Nation party has, for the first time, surpassed the Australian Labor Party in primary vote support, registering 32 per cent compared to Labor's 28.5 per cent. This finding emerges in the immediate aftermath of the Federal Budget, which included significant property tax changes.

The same poll suggests a broader dissatisfaction with the current administration, with 59 per cent of Australian voters disapproving of Prime Minister Albanese's performance. On a two-party preferred basis, however, Labor retains a slim lead, at 51 per cent to One Nation's 49 per cent, indicating a contest still too close to call at the highest level.

Roy Morgan poll: Breakthrough as Pauline Hanson's One Nation tops Labor in first post-Federal Budget poll - 1

Wider Political Snapshot

Beyond the lead figures, the poll paints a picture of a fragmented electorate. The Coalition garnered 16.5 per cent of the primary vote, with the Greens at 11.5 per cent. Independents and other minor parties collectively secured another 11.5 per cent. The poll surveyed a cross-section of 2,348 Australian voters via SMS.

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One Nation Leads Primary Votes in State Ahead of Election

Simultaneously, separate polling in Victoria, conducted in February 2026, shows One Nation taking the lead in primary vote intentions ahead of the state election. In Victoria, One Nation leads on primary votes with 29.5 per cent, ahead of Labor at 25.5 per cent. The Liberal-National Coalition trails at 21.5 per cent.

Roy Morgan poll: Breakthrough as Pauline Hanson's One Nation tops Labor in first post-Federal Budget poll - 2

Despite this lead in primary support, Labor, under Premier Jacinta Allan, still holds an advantage on a three-party-preferred basis, with 44.5 per cent, compared to One Nation's 29.5 per cent and the Coalition's 26 per cent. The Greens are at 13.5 per cent, with independents and other minor parties at 13 per cent.

Voter Dissatisfaction in Victoria

Premier Jacinta Allan faces considerable voter disapproval in Victoria, with 67.5 per cent of respondents expressing dissatisfaction with her performance. In contrast, Opposition Leader Jess Wilson garners a more favourable view, with 51 per cent of voters indicating she would make a better premier.

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Background

The recent surge in support for One Nation, as indicated by these polls, follows a period of increasing visibility for the party's economic platform. Senator Pauline Hanson has recently outlined priorities such as income-splitting for couples with children to reduce tax burdens. The context for the national poll is the recent Federal Budget, which notably altered rules around negative gearing for residential property, limiting its application to new builds only. These shifts occur against a backdrop of ongoing political debate concerning economic policy and the performance of the incumbent government.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Why did One Nation's support increase after the Federal Budget?
A recent poll shows One Nation has overtaken Labor in primary vote support nationally. This shift happened right after the Federal Budget was announced, which included changes to property taxes.
Q: How do voters feel about Prime Minister Albanese's performance?
The same poll found that 59% of Australian voters are not happy with Prime Minister Albanese's performance. This suggests a wider unhappiness with the current government.
Q: What are the latest voting numbers for national parties?
The poll shows One Nation with 32% primary vote support, Labor with 28.5%, the Coalition with 16.5%, and the Greens with 11.5%. Other parties and independents make up the rest.
Q: Does Labor still lead on a two-party preferred basis nationally?
Yes, Labor still has a small lead on a two-party preferred basis, with 51% compared to One Nation's 49%. This means the national election is still very close.
Q: What is happening in Victoria's state politics?
In Victoria, One Nation also leads in primary vote support with 29.5%, ahead of Labor at 25.5%. However, Labor leads on a three-party-preferred basis with 44.5%.