Poll Shows Challenger Herrera Ahead of Incumbent Gonzales in Texas Race

A recent poll shows Brandon Herrera is now ahead of Tony Gonzales in the Republican primary for Texas' 23rd Congressional District. This is a closely watched race for the upcoming election.
By Newsroom | Politics, Texas |

A recent poll suggests a notable change in the Republican primary race for Texas' 23rd Congressional District, with challenger Brandon Herrera reportedly overtaking incumbent Tony Gonzales. This development signals a potentially close contest, building on the rivalry established in the 2024 primary. The district, stretching from San Antonio to the Texas-Mexico border, is a significant electoral battleground.

The upcoming primary, scheduled for March 3, 2026, follows a closely contested runoff in 2024, where Gonzales narrowly defeated Herrera. This rematch brings into focus the divergent approaches and voter bases represented by the two candidates. Herrera, known for his strong stance on gun rights and his appeal through social media, is seen as an insurgent candidate challenging the establishment. Gonzales, a U.S. Navy veteran, has highlighted his legislative record and secured endorsements from party leadership, positioning himself as a more traditional Republican.

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The campaign landscape has been further complicated by past controversies and strategic maneuvers. The death of a staffer for Congressman Gonzales, Regina Santos-Aviles, has been a subject of discussion, with Gonzales publicly addressing the circumstances earlier this year. Herrera's campaign has also faced scrutiny, including allegations of not being a long-term Texas resident.

Candidates and Their Platforms

The Republican primary for Texas' 23rd Congressional District features incumbent Tony Gonzales and challenger Brandon Herrera.

EXCLUSIVE: Poll Shows Brandon Herrera Overtaking Tony Gonzales In Key House Primary - 1

  • Tony Gonzales:

  • Described as a "centrist from San Antonio and U.S. Navy veteran."

  • Highlights legislative achievements such as securing funding for police officers, establishing a facility for livestock parasite treatment, and appropriating funds for veteran healthcare.

  • Has received endorsements from Donald Trump, Governor Greg Abbott, and other establishment figures.

  • His voting record, including support for bipartisan gun legislation, has drawn criticism from some within his party.

  • Brandon Herrera:

  • Known as a "pro-gun YouTuber" or "AK Guy."

  • His platform emphasizes unrestricted gun ownership and resonates with voters who prioritize Second Amendment rights.

  • Appeals to a base through an "anti-establishment message" and social media engagement.

  • Has been labeled an "insurgent candidate" and his humor is seen by supporters as a rejection of "political correctness."

  • Has faced questions regarding his residency in Texas.

Recap of the 2024 Primary

The 2024 Republican primary runoff in Texas' 23rd Congressional District was a pivotal contest that narrowly saw incumbent Tony Gonzales defeat challenger Brandon Herrera.

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  • Gonzales secured a narrow victory, fending off a challenge from Herrera, who ran on a strong pro-gun platform.

  • Herrera's campaign attacked Gonzales for taking bipartisan votes, particularly his support for the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, passed after the Uvalde school shooting. This law expanded background checks for gun purchasers under 21 and criminalized illegal firearm trafficking.

  • The runoff attracted significant campaign spending, with groups like the Republican Jewish Coalition Victory Fund, the American Action Network, and the Hispanic Leadership Alliance investing millions to support Gonzales.

  • Allies of Gonzales attempted to portray Herrera as a "carpetbagger," suggesting he recently moved to Texas from North Carolina.

  • The race was viewed as a conflict between the "insurgent right" and the "GOP establishment," with Gonzales representing the latter.

  • Despite the loss, Herrera's close margin indicated substantial support for his message.

Recent Polling and Campaign Dynamics

A recent poll suggests a significant shift in voter sentiment, with Brandon Herrera now appearing to lead Tony Gonzales in the Republican primary.

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  • The poll indicates Herrera has overtaken Gonzales, a notable change from the previous closely contested race.

  • One report explicitly states, "Poll Shows Brandon Herrera Overtaking Tony Gonzales In Key House Primary."

  • Herrera's campaign narrative, as stated to the Daily Caller, is focused on presenting himself as a "pro-gun, pro-life, pro-Trump congressman" for Texas' 23rd District.

  • Gonzales' camp has publicly addressed a staffer's death, aiming to mitigate any negative perceptions, while also highlighting his focus on being "pro-gun, pro-life, pro-Trump."

Key Issues and Voter Appeal

The contest between Gonzales and Herrera highlights contrasting priorities and appeal to different segments of the Republican electorate.

  • Gun Rights: Herrera's staunch support for gun rights, particularly his YouTube presence focusing on firearms, is a central pillar of his campaign. This issue became prominent in 2024 due to Gonzales' vote for the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act.

  • Establishment vs. Insurgency: Herrera's campaign is framed as an anti-establishment movement, contrasting with Gonzales' reliance on institutional support and endorsements. Herrera's "grassroots approach and social media savvy" are presented as an alternative to Gonzales' backing from party leaders.

  • Legislative Record: Gonzales emphasizes his accomplishments over three terms, including securing funding for law enforcement and veterans' healthcare. He positions himself as delivering for the district, while Herrera suggests these efforts have not adequately addressed voters' concerns about Washington's direction.

  • Political Identity: Herrera's messaging appears to resonate with a base that values his rejection of political correctness, while this same approach might alienate more moderate voters.

Endorsements and Support Structures

The candidates have garnered support from different factions within the Republican party and beyond.

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EXCLUSIVE: Poll Shows Brandon Herrera Overtaking Tony Gonzales In Key House Primary - 2

  • Tony Gonzales:

  • Has the official endorsement of President Donald Trump.

  • Benefits from support of established Republican organizations, including groups that spent millions in the 2024 primary.

  • Has also received endorsements from Governor Greg Abbott and Lt. Governor.

  • Brandon Herrera:

  • His appeal is largely driven by his social media following, particularly on platforms like YouTube, where his pro-gun stance is a significant draw.

  • His support appears to be more grassroots-oriented, appealing to voters dissatisfied with the current political establishment.

Expert Analysis and Observations

Political observers have noted the distinct challenges and dynamics facing both candidates.

"A narrow victory like this should serve as a warning sign for Gonzales that he has work to do with his party’s right flank."— Punchbowl News, May 29, 2024

"In a win for governing-minded Republicans, Texas Rep. Tony Gonzales beats YouTube star Brandon Herrera known as the 'AK Guy'…"— Daily Mail, May 29, 2024

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The contrast between Gonzales' "governing-minded" approach and Herrera's "burn-it-all-down" type appeal has been highlighted, suggesting a broader ideological divide within the Republican party reflected in this district's primary. The previous close race indicated that Herrera's insurgent message found a receptive audience, despite Gonzales' establishment backing and legislative experience.

Conclusion and Implications

The reported shift in polling data, indicating Brandon Herrera potentially overtaking Tony Gonzales in the Texas 23rd Congressional District Republican primary, suggests a highly competitive race. This development underscores the impact of Herrera's populist and pro-gun platform against the incumbent's record and establishment backing. The outcome of this primary will be a significant indicator of the Republican party's direction in Texas, particularly the balance between its more traditional and insurgent wings.

Key implications include:

  • Voter Sentiment: The poll suggests a potential shift in voter preference, with Herrera's anti-establishment message resonating more strongly than in previous contests.

  • Party Dynamics: The race highlights the ongoing tension between established Republican figures and more ideologically driven challengers within the party.

  • Key Issues: The prominence of gun rights and broader cultural issues will likely continue to shape campaign strategies and voter engagement.

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The final months leading up to the March 3, 2026, primary will be critical for both campaigns to solidify their support bases and potentially sway undecided voters. The filing deadline for candidates is December 8, 2025.

Sources

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Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Who is running in the Texas 23rd Congressional District Republican primary?
The main candidates are the current office holder Tony Gonzales and challenger Brandon Herrera. There is also another candidate named Susan Storey Rubio.
Q: What does the new poll say about the race?
The poll suggests that Brandon Herrera is now ahead of Tony Gonzales. This is a change from their last close race.
Q: What are the main issues in this race?
Key issues include gun rights, with Herrera strongly supporting them. The race also shows a difference between establishment politicians and newer, anti-establishment candidates.
Q: When is the election?
The Republican primary election is scheduled for March 3, 2026.